Monday’s Islanders-penguins Clash Could Preview First-round Series

The New York Islanders enter Monday night's matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins with a 42-27-5 record, good for 89 points and the second seed in the Metropolitan Division. 

The Islanders sit just one point ahead of Pittsburgh and three points clear of the Ottawa Senators, the first team currently outside the playoff picture.

CoreNHL’s most probable Eastern Conference playoff matchups, following the conclusion of all games played on 3/29/2026: pic.twitter.com/cGyH9yjhjw

— CoreNHL (@CoreNHL) March 30, 2026

As things stand entering Monday's slate, the Islanders control their own fate.

All eight of the Islanders' remaining games come against Eastern Conference opponents, with six against teams realistically competing for a playoff spot and four against Metropolitan Division opponents, including Monday's tilt with Pittsburgh and two against the Carolina Hurricanes.

To make things more difficult, just six points separate fifth place from 11th in the Eastern Conference, setting the stage for one of the tightest playoff races in recent memory.

For the Islanders, the playoffs are by no means a lock, but if they do get in, the path starts to take shape.

According to CoreNHL, New York has an 82.3% chance of making the playoffs, up slightly following the Boston Bruins' three-goal comeback against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sunday night.

#CBJ falls to #NHLBruins in SO.#Isles one point up on CBJ with 8 games to go.

— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) March 30, 2026

The Islanders' odds rank fifth in the Eastern Conference and second in the Metropolitan Division.

Despite two remaining games against the division-leading Hurricanes offering the chance to tighten Carolina's nine-point lead in the standings, the Islanders have just an 0.1% chance to win the division, making first-round home ice an unlikely outcome.

As for potential playoff matchups, there is a 49.7% chance the Islanders face the Penguins in Round 1.

The two teams have split their season series so far, with Monday night being the deciding factor. The Islanders fell 5-4 in their season opener on October 9 before responding with a 5-4 win on February 3.

The Islanders have a 17.5% chance of facing the Columbus Blue Jackets, a team they have gone 3-1-0 against this season with a plus-1 goal differential.

Other potential opponents include the Washington Capitals (6.5%), Philadelphia Flyers (3.7%), Carolina Hurricanes (2.9%), Tampa Bay Lightning (1.4%), and Buffalo Sabres (0.5%). The odds of facing the Montreal Canadiens, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators, or Detroit Red Wings all sit below 0.1%.

Washington’s two remaining games against Pittsburgh, along with one against Columbus, present a more favorable opportunity to gain ground in the Metropolitan Division than most teams chasing a top-three seed.

CoreNHL projects the Islanders with a 47.4% chance to reach Round 2, a 14% chance to make the Eastern Conference Final, a 5% chance to reach the Stanley Cup Final, and a 1.4% chance to win the Stanley Cup.

While low, that Stanley Cup probability ranks second among Metropolitan Division teams, behind Carolina at 17.6%.

A regulation win over Pittsburgh on Monday could boost the Islanders' playoff odds by more than six percentage points, but a regulation loss could drop them to around 60%, depending on other results around the conference.

Puck drop between the Islanders and Penguins is set for 7:00 PM EST at UBS Arena.