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Nfl Mvp Odds & Prediction 2026: Josh Allen And Joe Burrow Top Board Ahead Of Week 1

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Week 1 of NFL action is finally here, and NFL MVP odds will surely see some action at the best prediction market apps like Kalshi following the conclusion.

Familiar names sit at the top of the board, with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow trading at 11%, followed by Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert.

Here are the latest NFL odds surrounding the prestigious award, as fans get prepped to make their NFL picks.

Key Takeaways:

Allen and Burrow co-favorites
Jackson poised for a resurgence
QBs occupy Top 10 spots

NFL MVP odds

Name	Probabillity
Josh Allen	11%
Joe Burrow	11%
Lamar Jackson	10%
Justin Herbert	9%
Drake Maye	8%
Caleb Williams	7%
Patrick Mahomes	7%
Dak Prescott	7%
Matthew Stafford	7%
Brock Purdy	5%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.

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NFL MVP favorites

Two years removed from winning his first MVP, Josh Allen is right at the top of things with an 11% chance to win it again. Right next to him is Joe Burrow, who is poised for a bounce back after turf toe cost him half of his season in 2025.

Lamar Jackson (10%) is also surrounded by a plethora of offensive talent, and he's in line for improvement after a lackluster year. His recent movement puts him above Justin Herbert (9%), who is surrounded by hype after the Chargers signed OC Mike McDaniel.

NFL MVP prediction

Drake Maye made an MVP push thanks to a weak 2025 schedule. Burrow follows that same smooth path in 2026, but is a far more talented QB. If Cincy makes good on the oddsmakers’ expectations and wins 11+ games, Burrow is your MVP.

Pick: Joe Burrow (10%)

Pick made by Jason Logan on August 25.

NFL MVP winners by position

Position	NFL MVP Awards
Quarterback	49
Running back	13
Fullback	4
Halfback	1
Kicker	1
Defensive tackle	1
Linebacker	1

Offensive players have dominated the NFL MVP Award since its inception. Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) are the only defensive players to receive the honor since 1957.

NFL MVP winners by team

Team	NFL MVP Awards
Green Bay Packers	10
Indianapolis Colts	8
San Francisco 49ers	5
Cleveland Browns	4
Los Angeles Rams	5
Las Vegas Raiders	4
New England Patriots	3
Washington Commanders	3
Kansas City Chiefs	3
Buffalo Bills	3

The rest of the league has a way to go before catching up with the Packers. Green Bay's 10 NFL MVP trophies are split among Paul Hornung (1961), Jim Taylor (1962), Bart Starr (1966), Brett Favre (1995, 1996, 1997), and Aaron Rodgers (2011, 2014, 2020, 2021).

Former NFL MVP winners

Player	Year	Opening Odds
Matthew Stafford	2025	+5000
Josh Allen	2024	+850
Lamar Jackson	2023	+1600
Patrick Mahomes	2022	+700
Aaron Rodgers	2021	+800
Aaron Rodgers	2020	+3000
Lamar Jackson	2019	+4000
Patrick Mahomes	2018	+3525
Tom Brady	2017	+385
Matt Ryan	2016	+7500
Cam Newton	2015	+5200