Nfl Odds, Betting, Storylines: 3 Underdogs To Back In Week 5

Don't look now, but since posting a 0-3 bagel in Week 1, I've nailed seven of my last eight NFL underdog recommendations.

Last week, I delivered a clean sweep with the New England Patriots (+7 at Buffalo), Miami Dolphins (+10 at Minnesota) and Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5 vs. Kansas City).

Then again, underdogs have dominated at the wagering window the last two weeks, going 20-10-2 ATS (10-5-1 ATS each week). And 15 of those 20 underdogs scored outright upsets.

Will underdogs cash at a 66.7% clip again in Week 5? Highly unlikely. Will I be boasting about a 10-1 heater with my NFL underdog best bets this time next week? Only one way to find out. 

Vikings (-2) at Saints

I alluded to it last week when I grabbed the points with the lowly Dolphins, but I refrained from stating it explicitly. Now I will: The undefeated Minnesota Vikings — who actually are 9-0 over the past 10 months — are frauds.

How else do you describe a team that scored nearly as many points in the second half of Week 1 (29) as it has in its other 14 quarters combined (39)? In fact, Minnesota had four touchdowns in the second half of its 39-22 comeback win over Green Bay. Otherwise, the Vikings have found the end zone three times (and one of those was on a punt return at Tampa Bay in Week 3).

That's right: The Vikings' offense has six total touchdowns in four games. And standout wide receiver Justin Jefferson — who sat out last week with a sprained ankle and is questionable for Sunday — has two of those scores.

As I mentioned last week, Minnesota's defense has been sensational, yielding only four touchdowns all season (and just one in the last three weeks). By comparison, the Saints' defense gave up six touchdowns in 60 minutes Monday night against Atlanta. And that defense has surrendered 31, 35 and 45 points in its three losses.

However, New Orleans also limited Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry and the Ravens to 17 points in a Week 2 road win. Also, the Saints' offense — led by second-year quarterback Tyler Shough — has put up at least 24 points in every game so far (and in seven of its last nine).

Did the Saints lay a massive egg Monday against the Falcons? Absolutely. But they also came within a 2-point conversion of winning in Detroit in Week 1; they pulled off that upset in Baltimore; and they had a double-digit second-half lead against the resurgent Raiders in Week 3 before the defense collapsed in the fourth quarter.

I doubt we'll have to worry about such a defensive collapse Sunday. Because Minnesota's offense — with or without a gimpy Jefferson — is garbage.

Bet: Saints +2

Browns at Jets (-2.5)

Do I believe the Browns — who have won three straight games for the first time since the middle of the 2023 season — are for real? Hardly. Do I believe the Browns are better than the Jets, whose lone victory this season was against a Titans squad that is 6-32 since the 2024 season kicked off, including 0-4 this year?

The same Jets who have a dozen victories in their last 52 games? And who have been favored once since the start of last season (a game they lost 37-22 to Dallas)? And who are 3-7 as favorites since Week 4 of 2024?

Yes, I believe the Browns are superior to the Jets.

I understand that Cleveland is less than a month removed from its season-opening 34-10 debacle at Jacksonville. I also don't think much of the opponents the Browns have taken out the last three weeks (Tampa Bay on the road; Carolina and Pittsburgh at home). 

However, these facts are indisputable: Cleveland has won five of six games since the end of last season. It is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games (all as an underdog). The defense is yielding 20.3 points per game over those seven contests (that includes the ugly loss to the Jaguars). And the offense has scored more than 20 points in three straight weeks — something New York has done three times in its last 12 contests.

This may not be pretty. In fact, I pretty much guarantee it won't be. But I'll happily take the points with a team playing with renewed confidence against an opponent that last week produced just seven first downs and 157 yards in a double-digit loss to an opponent led by a backup quarterback.

Bet: Browns +2.5

Lions (-5.5) at Cardinals

Detroit hits the road for a second straight week, while Arizona is coming off a roundtrip journey to New Jersey (where it lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Giants). So this is a tough spot for both teams. 

Which might leave you asking two questions: "Why should I get involved in this game?" and "Why would I back a Cardinals outfit mired in a 2-17 slump that has allowed 96 points in the last 10 quarters?"

The simple answer: The Lions, as currently constructed, shouldn't be laying this kind of number.

Not only is Detroit sitting at .500 through four games, but it is 0-3-1 ATS — despite fielding an offense that has put up 31, 31, 31 and 26 points. That pencils out to 29.8 points per game, which is fifth best in the NFL. Too bad it's exactly two points per game fewer than the Lions' Swiss-cheese defense is giving up (31.8).

In addition to ranking 31st out of 32 teams in scoring defense, Detroit is dead last in total yards allowed (423.8 per game) and dead last in passing yards allowed (304 per game). Now is a good time to mention the four quarterbacks the Lions have faced: Shough, Josh Allen, Geno Smith and Bryce Young.

Fine, so Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett might be the worst of that bunch (and the pick-6 he threw on the final play against the Giants last week was horrendous). But he's still led Arizona to 24-plus points in three of four games. 

What's more, he and his teammates are a couple of plays away from being 3-1. The Cardinals followed up a season-opening 26-14 upset of the Chargers with two near misses at San Francisco (36-30 loss) and New York (36-24 loss, a game Arizona was 4 yards away from winning).

Back to the Lions: During a 68-game stretch from mid-2021 through Week 5 of last season, they went 47-21 ATS. In 16 games since, Detroit has covered just four times, going 2-6 ATS on the road and 3-7-1 ATS as a favorite.

Bet: Cardinals +5.5

LAST WEEK: 3-0

SEASON: 7 -4