Nfl Predictions: 4 Keys To A Lions Victory Over The Dolphins

The Detroit Lions (5-2) and Miami Dolphins (1-6) will face off in Week 9 in a battle between two teams at different stages in their regime builds. The Lions have their eyes firmly set on the postseason and are riding a three-game win streak, while the Dolphins are in the early stages of a rebuild and are performing much like the Lions did in 2021 and 2022—lots of grit, but struggling to find success.

“(Dolphins Head) Coach (Jeff) Hafley’s done a good job in his first year,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said on Wednesday. “A lot of similarities to—just reminds me a little of what we were when we came in. They’re young, they’re hungry, they’re active. They run, they hit, they hustle, they finish, try to play disciplined ball, and they’re playing that way.”

This week’s prediction preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +1600 to win this year’s Super Bowl and are currently 7-point favorites in Week 9. Let’s take a closer look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will earn a victory over the Dolphins in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Dolphins base scheme

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 9 preview: Breaking down the Dolphins’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Prediction 1: Lions slow down pass rush with runs up the middle

Last Sunday, the Lions faced arguably the best defense in the NFL when they went head-to-head with the Vikings, and while the Dolphins are on the opposite end of the rankings spectrum, some of the strategies the Lions used against Minnesota will transfer over to this week’s game against Miami.

The Dolphins defense enters this game 29th in DVOA, 24th in points allowed (25.9), 24th in yards allowed per play (5.7 ypp), and are dead last in the NFL in three areas: EPA per play (+0.10), EPA per pass allowed (+0.26), and passing yards allowed per play (8.3).

However, this defense is showing growth in pressure rate. Looking at season totals, the Dolphins’ pressure numbers could be a bit deceiving: 31st in total pressures (77), 18th in pressure rate (35.6%), 30th in total sacks (9), and 28th in sack rate (4.2%). But when you look at the splits from their last four games, you can see the improvement:

• at Vikings: 17 pressures, 39.5% pressure rate, 4 sacks, 9.3% sack rate
• vs. Bengals: 11 pressures, 33.3% pressure rate, 0 sacks, 0% sack rate
• at Jets: 15 pressures, 45.5% pressure rate, 2 sacks, 6.1% sack rate
• vs. Patriots: 13 pressures, 48.1% pressure rate, 3 sacks, 11.1% sack rate

If we isolate the games against the Vikings, Jets, and Patriots, we see nearly 60% of the defensive pressures and 100% of the Dolphins sacks. When you look at how the Dolphins have generated pressures and sacks, most of those situations come from stunting their defensive linemen. Last week against the Patriots, the Dolphins sacked the quarterback once on an end-of-half situation, with the other two sacks coming off a stunt where an edge rusher loops behind the interior defensive lineman and twists inside. We also saw stunts get home against the Vikings in Week 4.

To counter the Dolphins’ stunts, offenses have been attacking the middle of the defensive line with their rushing attacks; teams are running inside 53% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.

While the Lions have preferred to lean on their outside-zone rushing scheme, we saw last week against the Vikings that Detroit has a formula to get downhill on inside runs. Now, the Lions don’t necessarily need to deploy a full-house set (three players in the backfield) again, but it would certainly be effective against the Dolphins’ Wide-9 base 4-3 defense.

Prediction 2: Lions cross the zone to open the field for Goff

While all defenses are complex, at their core, the Dolphins split their defensive personnel almost evenly between a base 4-3 (three linebackers) front and a “Big Nickel” (three safeties) formation. Regardless of set, they spend about 80% of the time in zone coverage, with half of that time spent between single-high (Cover-1, -3) and two-high (Cover-2, -4, -6) safety sets. When they deploy man coverage, they run exclusively single-high Cover-1.

Depending on the safety formation, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will have to find the holes in the zone to exploit, but those gaps can widen if the Lions stretch the Dolphins laterally with their passing game. Based on the games I watched, the Dolphins’ defenders settle in their zones and tend to be slow to react to crossing routes in front of them. When offenses find success on crossers and stretch the zones across the field, that opens gaps down the deep seams, where speed receivers—hey, Jameson Williams—have found chunk plays.

If the Lions can slow the Dolphins’ pass rush with run up the middle, then stretch the secondary laterally, they’ll have an opportunity to chew up yards in a variety of ways.

Prediction 3: Lions match physicality; prevent explosive runs

When the Dolphins lost their dynamic running back De’Von Achane to an ACL injury in Week 3, many thought Miami’s rushing attack would struggle. However, second-year back Ollie Gordon has stepped into a starting role, and the Dolphins’ new downhill, physical rushing attack has proved to be an asset, even outproducing their early-season statistics, save last week vs. the Patriots. With quarterback Malik Willis adding another element to the run game through RPOs and scrambles, stopping the run will likely be the Lions’ top priority.

On paper, their raw numbers look good: rushing for 123.3 yards per game (11th), averaging 4.4 yards per carry (11th), -0.03 EPA per rush (10th), 26 runs that gain 10+ yards (7th), and explosive runs 16.7% (3rd).

However, there are some concerning numbers that point to struggles with consistency, including:

• Rushing DVOA: 26th
• Rushing success rate: 38.7% (20th)
• Stuffed rate: 20% (26th)
• Adjusted line yards: 3.64 (27th)

The Dolphins will want to establish their rushing attack against the Lions, and Detroit will need to match that downhill physicality. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions spend a lot of time in base early as both teams work to control the trenches. Expect seven and eight defenders in the box pre-snap, and a situational spy to track Willis is likely.

With changes coming to the Lions’ linebacker roles, Detroit will need Derrick Barnes, Trevor Nowaske, and Malcolm Rodriguez to elevate their games and keep the explosive runs in check.

Prediction 4: Lions pass rushers get after Willis

If the Dolphins can establish the run, they do a nice job of running play-action behind it and finding success. But that’s not always an option for Miami’s offense, and the inconsistencies in the run game have forced Willis to create opportunities on his own.

Willis is talented—we saw that in Green Bay—comfortable passing from the pocket, and able to extend plays by escaping outside. But with limited support, he holds onto the ball too long, takes sacks, or misses his targets because his accuracy gets loose/inconsistent on the run. Miami’s offensive line is average at best (see below) and doesn’t hold up well against pressure, and while the Dolphins receivers have unique skills, they lack a true playmaker and currently rely on two rookies—Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell—in starting wide receiver roles.

As a result, Miami’s passing offense numbers are near the bottom of the league:

• Pass yards per game: 166.7 (30th)
• Pass yards per play: 6.9 (20th)
• EPA per pass: -0.16 (24th)
• Explosive passes: 24th
• Willis EPA per dropback: -0.10 (27th)
• Willis EPA per pressure: -0.70 (36th)
• Pressures rate allowed: 43.2% (31st)
• Sack rate allowed: 10.3% (31st)

The Lions would benefit by giving Willis no relief. Entering this game, the Lions have registered 116 pressures (5th best), a 35.8% pressure rate (17th), 24 sacks (third most), and a 7.4% sack rate (7th). Defense has found success against the Dolphins by rushing four and sending the blitz, so the Lions should have options to create pressure; they just need to find the right elixir to disrupt Willis.