Nfl Wants Prediction Platforms To Ban Markets That Can Be Easily Manipulated

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The NFL has asked prediction platforms to not offer contracts on what the pro football league calls easily manipulated markets. 

Key Takeaways

• The NFL is concerned about contracts that could be susceptible to insider trading.
  
  
• The list includes play-specific, officiating, and entertainment markets. 
  
  
• CFTC chair Michael Selig has urged prediction platforms to work with pro sports leagues.

The NFL sent a letter to multiple prediction companies, according to ESPN, outlining nearly 20 markets that could lead to “unfair and unwanted (gambling) allegations.” 

Many of the league’s concerns are centered around contract trading on broadcast mentions and play-specific prop markets. The list also includes officiating, coaching and management decisions, and fans.  

With the NFL Draft scheduled for next month, the league also wants operators to avoid live pick-by-pick contracts.   

“Some people are going to have that information ... that they can then share,” NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller recently told ESPN. “We're trying to stay as far as we can from some of those sorts of inside information wagers that could exist in this space.”

Insider trading concerns

The NFL wasn’t pleased that millions of dollars were traded on Kalshi on what broadcasters said during Super Bowl LX. The league also took issue with trades on which celebrities will appear at games due to potential for insider trading.

The NFL also doesn’t want player markets that can be controlled by a single individual to be allowed. The list includes a kicker missing a field goal, a quarterback not completing a first pass, a receiver being the first target, and a running back rushing for a certain number of yards on the first play. 

This is similar to the request MLB made to sportsbooks for pitch-level markets after federal prosecutors alleged that Cleveland Guardians pitchers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz manipulated first pitches to help two bettors from the Dominican Republic. 

Some of the NFL’s other market-ban requests where on trades that could also lead to manipulation involving fan safety, player injuries, trades, roster moves, and replay results. 

Examples of markets that the NFL is asking prediction markets to refrain from offering: pic.twitter.com/y9rjD4J79D

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) March 30, 2026

Running into issues

Sports event contracts burst onto the scene in early 2025 and have become a major attraction for prediction market users. Operators, which are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commisson (CFTC), have expanded offerings to include sportsbook-like markets like spreads, totals, player props, and more exotic prop contracts. 

Multiple state sports betting regulators are involved in lawsuits with prediction platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, and Coinbase, which offer sports contracts in jurisdictions with licensed, regulated wagering. 

There are also a dozen states that have proposed legislation to ban prediction markets from operating in those jurisdictions. Of recent prediction market news, a bipartisan bill created by U.S. senators that would ban sports contracts was recently introduced.  

New CFTC chairman Michael Selig has vowed to employ a tighter regulatory framework, but no official details have been released. The controversies and lack of clear regulation surrounding sports event operators has led some professional leagues to be reluctant to partner with prediction companies like they have with sportsbooks. 

Moving forward

However, the MLB set a new precedent when it recently partnered with Polymarket and signed a regulatory framework agreement with the CFTC, which regulates prediction markets. The NHL, UFC, and MLS have also entered marketing and data partnerships with prediction market operators. 

The NFL hasn’t come to similar terms with the CFTC or formed any agreements with prediction platforms, but the league has been in contact with the overseeing agency, which has urged prediction market platforms to work with sports leagues. 

“If a league is telling us that a contract is going to be readily susceptible to manipulation and an exchange is still trying to certify that, of course, we'll evaluate the risks there,” Selig told ESPN. “But the leagues are very well positioned to make those calls, and so we are going to afford a lot of deference to the leagues on these types of issues.”

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