Nfl Week 9 Survivor/eliminator Picks

There’s a strategy to NFL Survivor. You could, before Week 1, arrange the teams 1-32 in order of Super Bowl odds and simply go down the list week by week. But you’d run into issues — some obvious, some less so. And even if it went well, by Week 17 or Week 18, you could be playing for a title and have no one better than someone like the Buccaneers or Raiders left available to you. Do I want to write that being strategic explains why I have three losses in eight weeks? Well, yeah. It’s not true, but any excuse, you know? But the strategic factor plays in every week. It’s not just picking a team that should win; it’s picking a team that should win while not burning all your good late-season options. Check out my Week 9 pick for Survivor contests. And while we’re here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 9

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so it’s not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can’t pick a team I’ve picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

Bye Weeks

My favorite category — picks I can’t get wrong! If you don’t play, you can’t win, but also I won’t pick you, so woohoo for easy. Pittsburgh Steelers Tennessee Titans That’s two off the board.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (@ Seattle) Atlanta Falcons (vs. Cincinnati in Spain) Baltimore Ravens (vs. Jacksonville) Carolina Panthers (vs. Denver) Las Vegas Raiders (@ San Francisco) Miami Dolphins (vs. Detroit) Minnesota Vikings (vs. Buffalo) New York Jets (@ Kansas City) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Chicago) Washington Commanders (vs. LA Rams) Some of these teams will win but you can’t confidently say so, considering who they’re facing. That’s 10 more off the board. 20 left.

They’re Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Cleveland Browns (@ New Orleans) Indianapolis Colts (vs. Dallas) Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Houston) New Orleans Saints (vs. Cleveland) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. NY Giants) Five more eliminations leaves us with 15 remaining.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or an overseas 9:30 a.m. ET game. There aren’t many left this week, but I still want to note them. Buffalo Bills (@ Minnesota) Chicago Bears (vs. Tampa Bay) Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Atlanta in Spain) Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Baltimore) Four more gone, 11 left. But this week, we have one extra category.

A Fatal Flaw

These teams have something (at least right now) that means I just can’t trust them with my fate. Maybe it’s a terminal failure or maybe it’s just short term, but either way I can’t give them any faith in Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys (@ Indianapolis) — horrific defense; complete lack of closing Denver Broncos (@ Carolina) — can’t play two good halves in the same game Green Bay Packers (@ New England) — utter lack of running game San Francisco 49ers (vs. Las Vegas) — who’s healthy? That’s four more gone, leaving us with seven teams — our seven contenders.

The Contenders

Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Detroit Lions (@ Miami)

Model Projection: Lions 26.8320.10, Lions 67.3% win rate Pros: The Lions are rounding into form — even the defense is improving. Cons: Road game? A desire to save them for the Week 14 Titans home game?

Houston Texans (@ LA Chargers)

Model Projection: Texans 25.70-19.45, Texans 66.7% win rate Pros: Why wouldn’t you take anyone facing the Chargers? Cons: The Texans have managed to lose to the Colts, Cowboys and Giants so far, so they’re hardly infallible.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. NY Jets)

Model Projection: Chiefs 25.82-19.53, Chiefs 66.8% win rate Pros: Andy Reid on one side, Aaron Glenn on the other. Cons: The Jets offense is surprisingly frisky this year, while the Chiefs are wholly incapable of working deep.

Los Angeles Rams (@ Washington)

Model Projection: Rams 26.62-21.10, Rams 64.1% win rate Pros: Since falling to 2-4, the Rams have won two straight, one by 14 and one by 15. They’re (finally) rounding into form. Cons: The last time we felt confident about an elite NFC West team taking on the Commanders in Washington, the Seahawks lost that game.

New England Patriots (vs. Green Bay)

Model Projection: Patriots 24.15-22.08, Patriots 55.6% win rate Pros: Drake Maye looks like a superstar again, even as his receiver room is a giant question mark. Cons: The Packers have no running game at all but still have been right in everything.

New York Giants (@ Philadelphia)

Model Projection: Giants 20.47-20.40, Giants 50.2% win rate Pros: The Eagles the last couple weeks have looked like the worst team in football. Cons: Is it possible the Giants have only Devin Singletary in the backfield?

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona)

Model Projection: Seahawks 25.97-18.03, Seahawks 71.3% win rate Pros: An angry Seahawks team taking on Gardner Minshew II should handle things easily. Cons: Backup quarterback time, although Drew Lock acquitted himself well. That said, the Chargers, Rams and Cowboys also should have handled the Cardinals easily, and … well …

The Pick

Detroit Lions (@ Miami)

Other than that Week 13 Titans game, the Lions don’t have an obvious time to save them for. So this makes sense as a “use them now” pick, especially given the Dolphins don’t have the passing game to take advantage of the Lions’ primary defensive weakness.

Honorable Mention

Houston Texans (@ LA Chargers) — if you didn’t use them when I did Los Angeles Rams (@ Washington) 2026 record: 5-3 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks (L) Week 4: Vikings (W) Week 5: Bengals (W) Week 6: Chiefs (W) Week 7: Texans (L) Week 8: Jaguars (W) Week 9: Lions