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Odds Of Steve Kerr’s Return Are Dropping, According To Warriors Broadcaster

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA - APRIL 17: Head coach Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors reacts during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 17, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Just before the end of the season, Steve Kerr told ESPN it was “50-50” that he’d be back as head coach of the Golden State Warriors next season. Now, Warriors insider Monte Poole thinks it’s 20-80, or even 15-85.

.@MontePooleNBCS on Steve Kerr returning:

"If I had to put odds on Steve coming back, I'd say the chance of him coming back are like 15%, 20%. I think the likelihood is that he leaves. At this stage, I would say 'If the door is over there, he's looking at that door and he's… pic.twitter.com/S0YuXc7Bzl

— Chef (@CurryForGame) April 21, 2026

In a conversation with Bonta Hill on the Dubs Talk podcast, Poole summarized how he saw Kerr’s uncertain coaching future:

“The likelihood is that he leaves,” Poole said. “At this stage, I would say ‘If the door is over there, he’s looking at that door and he’s walking toward it’ . . . Can he turn around and turn back? Yeah, but the odds of that are slim.”

Poole explained that people were already speculating this could be Kerr’s final season during the summer, with he and Hill publicly discussing it in December. Assistant coach Chris DeMarco left during the season to become head coach of the New York Liberty, while other assistant coaches were exploring their options, with at least a strong suspicion that their head coach might not be back.

Hill and Poole agreed that the idea that the Warriors would “run it back” with this season’s disappointing roster wouldn’t be acceptable to Kerr or to team management. If the Warriors make big changes to their roster, which is badly lacking in size, youth and athleticism when it comes to other playoff teams, they very well might change their head coach.

There’s another reason to think Kerr himself might be done, and that’s the nature of his comments during the season. It’s not the first time that Kerr has lobbied for a shorter NBA season, but he was more vocal this year. A coach who is talking to reporters about how he wishes the season was shorter is not a coach who is thrilled about coaching more basketball games.

Poole also noted that Kerr spoke about the limitations of the roster, a part of the team he does not control. Kerr handles rotations and doling out minutes, but he may have been sending a message that he did not agree with management’s personnel decisions. Plus, the capped-out Warriors may not have the same options for veterans on minimum deals when the team can’t promise they’ll

Overall, the Warriors future is not bright. Steve Kerr is not happy. Don’t be surprised if the odds of him staying drop to 0-100 very soon.