Patriots-bills Preview: Slowing Down James Cook Is Pivotal For New England

Patriots-Bills preview: Slowing down James Cook is pivotal for New England originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

There isn’t much that has flummoxed Drake Maye to this point in his second season, but that doesn’t mean the Bills won’t try.

When Buffalo’s defense rolls into Gillette Stadium on Sunday, led by defensive-minded head coach Sean McDermott, they’ll bring with them one of the most deception-based philosophies in the NFL. They love to disguise their coverages when opposing quarterbacks get to the line, changing the picture as soon as the ball is snapped.

The goal? Confuse reads, force mistakes, or encourage passers to hold onto the football longer than they’d like while they sort through the confusion.

The Bills rank sixth in the NFL in the rate at which they disguise coverages pre-snap, according to Sumer Sports, doing so on 38 percent of opponent pass plays. That’s significantly higher than the league average of 30 percent, and given their success when disguising — they allow just 0.03 EPA per play when disguising coverage versus 0.11 EPA per play when they don’t — you start to understand those tendencies.

“(The Bills are) really as well coordinated of a group as we’ll play all year,” Josh McDaniels said this week. “They do so many things to challenge you before the snap, and then there’s a whole litany of things that happen once the ball is in the quarterback’s hands.”

Fortunately for the Patriots, their 23-year-old quarterback has handled those disguised-coverage situations expertly.

Against the Bills in Week 5, he beat an all-out blitz look that turned into more of a traditional Cover 1 look with an eight-yard back-shoulder completion to Kayshon Boutte. He noticed a Cover 1 look that turned into Cover 2, extended the play, and hit Pop Douglas for 10 yards along the sideline. Buffalo’s Cover 3 quickly shape-shifted into Tampa 2, and Maye found Stefon Diggs for 16 yards.

In that game, Maye went 14-for-17 against disguises, according to Sumer, for 205 yards (12.1 per attempt).

For the season, Maye has been carving up disguised coverages more efficiently than the traditional looks with which he’s presented.

Per Sumer, he’s completed 76.5 percent of his passes (104 of 136) against disguised coverages. He’s also compiled a 10.3 yards per attempt figure in those scenarios. His EPA per dropback against disguises sits at 0.43, which is significantly better than his tied-for-the-league-leading 0.22 overall EPA per dropback (Jordan Love).

Against disguised coverages, according to Sumer, quarterbacks average a 65.4 completion percentage and 7.3 yards per attempt, indicating that Maye has already developed above average read-and-react skills in those moments when defenses try to confuse him. 

“Just seeing it post-snap,” Maye said this week when asked about his performance against disguised looks. “I think that’s one of the biggest things that you heard about coming from college is disguise in coverage, them flipping the rotation or starting rotation and going back. 

“I think it’s good for me to see it from our defense all of training camp. I remember those days. Our defense does a great job of showing down one side and blitzing two off the other edge, some of the same stuff that Buffalo does. They’re really good at disguising, and just trying to see that they’ve got to go to what they’re going to play at the end of the day after the snap. Just trying to play fast, play smart and just do my best to see it post-snap and make a decision.”

If he can continue to make the right decisions against a defense that tends to deploy morphing coverages, Maye will have his team in position to wrestle away the AFC East from Buffalo for the first time in five years.

Let’s get to the rest of the most critical matchups in this one…

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Patriots run defense vs. James Cook’s explosiveness

The Patriots have the second-worst run defense in the NFL since Week 9, according to Sports Info Solutions, judging by EPA per rush attempt. Maybe a week off — not to mention the return of defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga — will help them improve Sunday. 

But if they aren’t better in that regard, it could be a long afternoon. James Cook is firmly one of the best running backs in football, and his offensive line has done an excellent job of maximizing his tremendous physical skill set. He’s accumulated the second-most yards in the NFL before contact, according to NextGen Stats, and he has the third-most yards after contact.

He and Jonathan Taylor of the Colts are the only two backs in the league who rank in the top-five in both categories.

Matchup that could surprise you

Bills run defense vs. Patriots rushing attack

Surprisingly, the Bills run defense might not be as bad as their numbers would indicate. And against a rushing offense in New England that ranks 29th in the NFL in success rate, Buffalo might be able to rely on its run defense to help them hold off the Patriots’ pursuit of the AFC East title.

First, the numbers. They’re ugly.

The Bills are fourth-worst in the NFL with a yards-per-carry allowed figure of 5.1 and a first-down rate of 28.7 percent when opponents hand off. They’re last in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions, in terms of average yards per carry after contact (3.6). The Bills have been particularly bad against zone runs, allowing 6.8 yards per carry (31st in the NFL) against those types of calls, per SIS. 

We noted during the bye week that the Patriots have been relatively efficient (4.2 yards per attempt) when calling for outside zone carries recently so perhaps they deploy those more often this week. 

But here’s the catch. The Bills have been better against the run of late with veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson in the starting lineup for the injured Terrell Bernard. In the last two weeks, the Bills have allowed just 60 yards per game on the ground, a serious improvement from the 148.9 average they allowed the first 12 weeks of the season. 

Bernard (elbow) is questionable for Sunday, meaning Thompson could factor prominently into McDermott’s game plan once again. If he is, and if Buffalo brings to Foxboro the same run defense it has had of late, it could make life that much harder for the Patriots as they chase their first division championship since 2019.

Matchup that will make your Sunday

Drake Maye’s accuracy vs. Bills split-safety coverages

Whether or not the Bills decide to disguise their defenses, they may want to change their tendencies in terms of the coverage looks they ultimately decide to play. They use the third-highest rate of split-safety coverages (49.5 percent), according to NGS. And they’ve been successful with it, allowing just a 61.0 completion percentage (fourth-lowest).

But Maye tends to dice up split-safety looks. He’s completed 75.6 percent of his pass attempts against two-high looks (second-best) and he’s first in EPA against two-high looks since Week 6. In that same time span — the last two months of football — Maye has the third-worst sack rate (15.6 percent) and is 17th in EPA against Cover 1, which features a single-high safety and man-to-man coverage. The Bills, per Football Insights, have played Cover 1 just 14 percent of the time this season, which is 24th in the NFL. 

Matchup that could ruin your Sunday

Patriots pass rush vs. Josh Allen’s escapability

Josh Allen is, once again, one of the best scrambling quarterbacks in football. No quarterback has more rushing yardage as a scrambler than Allen (414), per NGS, and his four touchdown passes as a scrambler are third-most. 

He’s even more efficient from the pocket. His yards per attempt (8.4 to 6.9) and quarterback rating (103.2 to 101.5) are both better from inside the pocket compared to his work outside the pocket. 

But is there reason to believe that keeping Allen behind center is the way to go for Mike Vrabel’s defense? In Buffalo’s three road losses this season, Allen has struggled relative to his typical performance from inside the pocket. 

Against the Falcons (the Bills scored 14 in a loss), he completed just 57.1 percent of his passes and had a 74.7 rating from the pocket. Against the Dolphins (13 points in a loss), he averaged 6.6 yards per attempt from the pocket and had an 86.8 rating. Against the Texans (19 points in a loss), he had a 72.2 rating from the pocket thanks to two picks from inside the pocket. 

Vrabel explained this week that the plan needs to be more involved than simply allowing Allen to operate from the pocket.

“Well, you can keep him in the pocket,” Vrabel said. “He’s just got to stand there and wait for somebody to uncover. I mean, you can keep him in the pocket. You can stand there and we can all just stand there, and he’ll (throw with ease). 

“Coordinated and relentless is probably the best way to phrase it. Because, again, you say, ‘Well, keep him in the pocket.’ And then guys are just standing there and they’re cautious, and we don’t want to coach that way. We want to make sure that we’re trying to remain aggressive, but certainly sound. When he does extend, then we’re going to need to plaster and have guys be able to come up and help us.”

Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 28