Patriots X-factors Against The Seahawks In Super Bowl 60

TAMPA, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 9: Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots talks with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels prior to an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on November 9, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images) | Getty Images

After a six-season absence that saw their dynastic run come to an end and the entire franchise undergo a wide-ranging yet comparatively quick rebuilding process, the New England Patriots are back in the Super Bowl. Standing in their way is a Seattle Seahawks team that has played some impressive football this season and is ranked near the top of the league in various metrics on both sides of the ball.

Unsurprisingly, the Patriots know that they need to bring their A-game to this particular matchup.

“They’re first in the league in scoring on defense, third on offense. Good mix of veterans and youth. So, any time that you have defenses that are good at keeping points down, it makes it real difficult,” said head coach Mike Vrabel before his team’s trip to California. “We’re going to have to be really good in all phases. This is an excellent football team.”

Vrabel’s team has been that as well this season, or else it would not be playing for the Lombardi Trophy come Sunday. That said, it took a different path to the Super Bowl than the Seahawks not just because it had to play an extra game in the wild card round.

While Seattle combined a stout defense with an efficient offense all year, the Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season in large part because of MVP runner-up Drake Maye and the offense. As soon as the playoffs began, however, the defense took over: the unit led by interim coordinator Zak Kuhr has been outstanding, giving up just 26 total points in three contests.

On Sunday, however, a different challenge awaits: a Seahawks squad that won the NFC by being arguably the most balanced team in the NFL. So, how can the Patriots overcome that balance and crown themselves as champions just one year after finishing 4-13?

There is a path for them to victory. Let’s explore it.

All numbers come via NFL Next Gen Stats, Pro Football Focus or FTN, unless noted extra. For a more detailed explanation, please click here.

Patriots offense vs. Seahawks defense

Stay on schedule

Seattle’s defense is entering Super Bowl LX as one of the top units in all of football, allowing a league-low 17.1 points per game this season and ranking second behind only the Houston Texans in expected points per play (-0.110). The Patriots, of course, went up against those very same Texans and finished with 28 points — a number inflated by the defense registering five turnovers including a pick-six.

Their own offense, meanwhile, had a hard time consistently stringing positive plays together. It struggled to generate positive momentum on first downs — finishing with 3.4 yards on those plays with a success rate of 37.9% — and was unable to contain one of the best pass rushes in football. To make matters worse, the Patriots themselves turned the ball over three times against Houston.

Now, they will be going up against a similarly-disruptive defense, which suggests that the task at hand will not be much easier if at all. While that is true in the grand scheme of things, Seattle has been surprisingly uneven on first down: including the playoffs, they are ranked only 16th in the league in defensive EPA on first down (-0.015) and 10th in success rate (41.1%) — not bad, but not quite as impressive as a holistic view at the unit would make you believe.

The goal for the Patriots should therefore be clear: improve in those critical areas that were an issue versus the Texans and to some degree the other two playoff opponents, and, by whatever deity you worship, hold onto the football.

To their credit, though, the Patriots did show improvement in the ball security department in the AFC Championship Game and finished with zero interceptions or fumbles against another top-tier unit. They need to keep that streak going against a Seattle defense that is averaging 1.5 turnovers per game, including four in two postseason games so far.

“They do a great job of playing fast,” said Drake Maye. “They swarm to the football. We’ve got to protect it when we’re running, and obviously they play some zone coverage. They’ve got eyes on the quarterback, some tipped balls. I’ve got to make sure I’m being really accurate with the football. Obviously, the rush, they’ve got good players up front, so I’ve got to be careful in the pocket. They’re good at all three levels. We’ve got a tough challenge. They play really fast, and we’re looking forward to a good challenge.”

If Maye in particular can cut down on the ball security issues he showed in his first two playoff games against L.A. and Houston, and they can stay on schedule on early downs as well, the Patriots will be taking a big step toward victory.

Play the matchup game

No defense in football has been as good against the run this year as Seattle’s. In 19 games thus far, opponents have averaged only 93.9 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry while also posting a league-worst -0.204 EPA per play. Making those numbers is even more impressive is the fact that the unit led by head coach Mike Macdonald and defensive coordinator Aden Durde is operating primarily out of nickel packages.

So far this season, Seattle has played nickel — i.e. with five defensive backs on the field — on three fourths of defensive snaps (77.3%). They have been able to do so thanks to impressive rookie safety Nick Emmanwori blurring the line between safety and linebacker, offering size and physicality in the box but also the short-area burst and instincts to be a factor in coverage.

Even if teams go heavy against them, like the Rams tried to do in the NFC Championship Game, they rarely wavered. According to data collected by TruMedia, the Seahawks played nickel on 83.9% of snaps against 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) and 89.8% against 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR).

Macdonald and Durde are clearly comfortable trusting their nickel packages to get the job done even against bigger looks, and their success shows why. There are exceptions, though, the Patriots could try to take advantage of.

Against 22 personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) and six-OL packages, the Seahawks have moved out of their nickel looks frequently, calling them on only 22.2% and 54.5%, respectively. The Patriots could therefore experiment with the heavier packages they have used comparatively frequently this year: they called 22-personnel on 8.6% of snaps in 2025 and called upon third tackle Thayer Munford Jr. to add more beef to the front on 7.3% of snaps.

Both of those rates are among the highest in football this year, and could lure Seattle out of its preferred defensive group. While probably not sustainable as the basis of an offensive game plan, they could create mismatches and give Josh McDaniels what he needs: he is as good as any play-caller in football to quickly identify weaknesses and hammer them repeatedly (look no further than the only touchdown drive in the Patriots’ last Super Bowl against the Rams).

Take what the defense gives you

Besides their defensive personnel, the Seahawks have also been consistent with their coverage. They are a zone-heavy team even though they employ match principles within those zones (which allows them to live in a fluid state and be quick to the ball).

They are running zone on 71.7% of snaps, posting an EPA of -0.036 that ranks eighth in the NFL. For comparison, their 27.7% man rate ranked fifth at -0.043.

Seattle can use those structures out of its nickel look because it is supported by a strong defensive line capable of disrupting the opponent even with four players. This, in turn, gives the defense a 7-on-5 edge to condense the field and tighten throwing lanes.

While teams have had problems moving the ball against that defense, it will be facing off against one of the best zone-beating quarterbacks in football. Drake Maye has been impressive picking zones apart and being patient enough to take what the defense gives him.

Of course, patience might not be something the Seahawks will afford him. While they will gladly sacrifice some short completions and check-downs to prevent the big play down the field to either Kayshon Boutte or Kyle Williams, their D-line also is capable of getting to him quickly. And if it does, the Patriots might run into the same problems they encountered against the Chargers, Texans and Broncos: high sack totals, turnovers, and getting off the schedule mentioned earlier.

That said, with those problems come opportunity. Scrambling has become a bigger part of Maye’s game in the playoffs, in large part to counter the collapsing pockets, and he has been quite good at it. Seattles’s defense, on the other hand, has not.

While Maye is trying to remain a passer for as long as possible, he could find openings against. Seattle has allowed the fifth-most explosive runs — i.e. carries of 10-plus yards — in the league on scrambles this season and is ranked 32nd in EPA per scramble attempt.

If he can do damage with his legs, the Seahawks might be forced into playing a more timid form of defense. This, in turn, might open things up downfield for a passing attack that hit explosives regularly in the regular season and in crucial moments against both the Chargers and Texans in the playoffs.

Be ready for the Seahawks’ bread and butter

We have mentioned the Texans a few times already, and the Seahawks are also similar to them when it comes to pass rush. Both teams rely on a dominant front-four as the engine that powers the entire defensive machine.

In Seattle’s case that group is led by interior linemen Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy as well as edges DeMarcus Lawrence and Uchenna Nwosu. With them as the first men up, the defense has generated a 34.2% pressure rate that ranks third in football. They did so without using the blitz — Seattle is ranked 25th in blitz rate (24.8%) — but rather by challenging offensive lines both individually and as a cohesive unit.

What does that mean? A stunt rate of 24.5% that ranks third in the NFL.

“They’re probably the best in the National Football League at running games up front and creating pressure,” Mike Vrabel said. “They work very well together. It’s something that we show our guys every week. So, I know that that’ll be a big key in this game, is being able to block those guys up front.”

The Patriots’ offensive line has had its ups and downs this season against stunts, particularly on the left side where rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson are manning the tackle and guard spots, respectively. Both have had impressive stretches of play this season, but the uptick in competition paired with Campbell still recovering from the MCL injury he suffered in late November against the Bengals, have allowed defenses to get the better of them repeatedly.

While that is not the only reason for the Patriots’ offensive decline in the playoffs, it is one area the Seahawks are likely to test early to find out how it holds up. And while simply powering forward in one-on-one situations will be part of proceedings as well, stunts also will come into play.

“It will be a huge factor in the game,” added Vrabel. “They’re pretty good at it. Not pretty good, they are really good at it. That’s a strength of what they do. That’s how they are able to apply pressure with a four-man rush: they can straight rush and guys work off of each other, but then guys work well together to get somebody else free or even be the guy that gets free. They pick, they drive to the quarterback and they make it difficult on you.

“That will be a huge factor in the game, our ability to protect those in passing downs and passing situations, and not let the guy get to the back hip of the lineman, and then be able to drive, and then you create a two-on-one. So, they’ve probably evolved in just some of the way that we do it, as some of the other teams are doing it as well. Based on who you have, the personnel, I think it’s driven by the style and what you’re going to do, the game or where you line up. Is it a linebacker doing it? Is it a defensive lineman or is it a defensive end? So, I would say that the body type probably dictates the technique and what you’re going to use to try to pick or run a game.”

Patriots defense vs. Seahawks offense

Win on early downs

We mentioned success on early downs as key element for the Patriots on offense, and the same is true on the other side of the ball. While that sounds like a generic assessment that can be applied every week — and to a degree that is obviously the case — the Seahawks in particular are not a team that likes to operate out of third-and-long situations.

The numbers are an illustration of this. Facing third downs with at least 7 yards to gain, Seattle has a conversion rate of only 16.8%; 31st in the NFL. Their EPA per play on third and long is ranked 26th.

The question for the Patriots is how to get in those situations in the first place. It all starts on early down, of course, and with the run game.

The Seahawks are one of the most run-heavy teams in all of football, particularly on early downs. Their rate of 54% in those situations is ranked third in the NFL behind two teams — Washington and Baltimore — that employ dual-threat options at quarterback; and while Sam Darnold is not a bad athlete either, he is no Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson who is frequently involved as a ball carrier.

The player to watch for the Patriots is Kenneth Walker, who has run the ball 259 times for 1,205 and nine touchdowns so far this season. That output is solid, and he took a step up in the playoffs by improving his yards per carry (+0.1 to 4.7), yards per game (+19.6 to 80.0) and success rate (+16.6 to 60.5%) as a runner.

Overall, however, Walker and the Seahawks run game have been hit or miss: he finished 30th in stuffed run rate, but third in explosive runs. His yards before contact are only 1.7, but he’s at 3.0 after.

Basically, if Walker can get through initial traffic, he is a dangerous player. The getting through traffic part has been a problem at times, though, and will be tested once again come Sunday.

The Patriots, after all, have as potent a run defense as any team in football. Led by Milton Williams and Christian Barmore along the interior line, they have held opponents to only 214 total rushing yards as well as -0.253 EPA per run and a 31.6% success rate.

Seattle running into the teeth of the Patriots defense should therefore not be expected, particularly because two thirds of their interior offensive line — center Jalen Sundell and right guard Anthony Bradford — are at a clear disadvantage against Williams, Barmore and even rotational DTs Khyiris Tonga and Cory Durden. Accordingly, they will try to get their outside zone game going to test New England’s line horizontally.

If the Patriots can disrupt the flow and get to Walker before he can hit his cutback lanes, Seattle’s ability to move the ball on the ground would be heavily impacted. This, in turn, would have a trickle-down effect on the rest of the offense.

Be disciplined against play-action

The trickle-down effect mentioned above would be most directly felt on play-action. And for the Seahawks, that play-action element being compromised would be a problem.

The offense led by coordinator Klint Kubiak has been outstanding on those concepts, which is why it is ranked seventh in the NFL in play-action rate this season. Quarterback Sam Darnold, meanwhile, has thrived: he is entering the Super Bowl ranked fourth in EPA per play on play-action passes, completing 68.5% of his throws for 1,646 yards and a league-leading 11.0 yards per attempt; he also. threw 15 touchdowns off play-action compared to five interceptions.

When running play-action, his completion percentage improves by 0.7% and his yards per attempt by 3.5. That firsts number is not particularly impressive, but that second is by far the biggest increase in the NFL.

It is also a direct result of the Seahawks’ high rate of explosives: 19.6% of their play-action passes ended up gaining at least 20 yards, the highest rate in football.

That said, this will be a strength-on-strength matchup come Sunday. While Seattle ranks first in play-action EPA, so does the Patriots defense.

“You have to be able to transition if you don’t pressure and you don’t time up the pressure with the play-action,” said Mike Vrabel. “They’re trying to get people blocking at the line of scrimmage. They’re trying to marry their run actions with this system, which as far back as I can remember in this system — and Clint [McMillan]’s done a great job of marrying their run actions each week — is difficult to prepare for.

“So, you get linebackers that are now coming up to the line of scrimmage, opening up passing lanes at the second and third level, and usually finding ways to protect the quarterback with seven guys in there. The big thing for us has always just been about transitioning and making sure that we’re able to get back, we’re able to panic when we’re not pressuring and that we’re able to get into those throwing lanes.”

Don’t let JSN beat you

The Seahawks’ passing game has been quite top-heavy this season. Whereas the Patriots have nine different players registering at least 200 receiving yards in 2025, the Seahawks have five of them. Seattle also has one player hoarding targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is arguably the best wide receiver in NFL this season, and was recently named the league’s Offensive Player of the Year.

Including the playoffs, he has hauled in 132 passes for 1,965 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also has been the target on 35.4% of Seattle’s pass attempts so far.

Needless to say, JSN is Sam Darnold’s go-to guy and the No. 1 weapon the Patriots need to eliminate. How they will try to do so will be fascinating to see.

In the past under head coach Bill Belichick, they regularly employed double coverage against wide receivers of that caliber. They would take their No. 2 cornerback, which in this case would be Carlton Davis, to form a bracket with a safety — most likely Jaylinn Hawkins — over the top. The Patriots of Super Bowl LX might use a similar tactic, but it will not be easy to enforce.

Seattle, after all, does a good job of moving Smith-Njigba all over the formation. They primarily line him up as a traditional outside receiver (79.5%) but also move him to the slot (18.7%) and even the backfield (1.8%) to find favorable matchups; his usage in the latter two areas, meanwhile, has increased in the playoffs.

As a consequence, the Patriots and their zone-heavy defense will not be able to rely on bracket coverage as reliably as they might want. Instead, they could go a different route to ride and die with their best defender: cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Gonzalez, like Smith-Njigba, is among the very best his position has to offer in football and the type of player capable of limiting the wideouts impact. That is not the only reason why using him on JSN would make sense from a New England point of view: the Seahawks are overly reliant on their star wideout as a perimeter target; their other top receiving options are slot receiver Cooper Kupp, tight end A.J. Barner and deep threat Rashid Shaheed, who does line up outside but is not a volume option on offense.

Frankly, Smith-Njigba is the guy to focus on. And the Patriots have the guy to do so, particularly within the context of their entire pressure-based defensive operation. Speaking of that…

Turn Darnold back into a pumpkin

Sam Darnold deserves plenty of credit.

After struggling mightily with the New York Jets and neither finding his footing in subsequent stints with the Panthers and 49ers, he reemerged as a starting-caliber quarterback in Minnesota last season. Now, he is a bona-fide QB who has shown he can withstand pressure — both physically and mentally — at a much higher level than early in his career.

In the playoffs in particular, he has been very good.

On Sunday, however, the Patriots will still try to test him in that regard and bring the heat. Over the course of the entire season, after all, Darnold has had his fair share of issues dealing with pressure.

While he has been completing 75.2% of passes with a 9.5 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns snd six interceptions when facing no pressure, those numbers drop to 51.5%, 6.3 yards per attempt, 14 TDs and eight INTs. Meanwhile, his turnover-worthy play rate jumps from 2.5% to 4.6%.

For the Patriots, pressure will be a key on Sunday even with Darnold having settled down a bit in that regard as of late. The goal is not just to get to him, though, but to force the one mistake that could end up making the difference in what projects to be a close game.

And Darnold has made his mistakes. Before going turnover-free in the postseason, he threw 14 interceptions for a rate of 2.9% (compared to Drake Maye’s 1.6%) and lost six fumbles. One could therefore argue that this player is still somewhere in there, and that New England will need to try to get him out.

How, though, is the question. Repeated physical pressure is one way to do so, particularly up the middle where — as noted above — Milton Williams and Christian Barmore project to have an advantage over Seattle’s blockers. However, muddying the waters also is a way to make Darnold uncomfortable and return to his previous turnover-prone ways. It’s a tactic the Patriots have employed successfully so far this postseason.

Against the like of Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and Jarrett Stidham, they went heavy on the blitz not only to improve the pressure numbers, but simply to create challenging looks and slow down the processing ever so slightly. It might not seem like a lot, but a split-second difference is all it might take between a pass arriving on time and in the right location or falling incomplete.

Presenting extra rushers and funky looks, and rotating after the headset communication is turned off, could all help create those hesitations. And if they occur, Seattle’s passing game might just find itself lagging and unable to string enough plays together to consistently move down the field.