Ranking The Likelihood Of Each Maple Leafs Rfa Signing A Contract Extension

Going into Wednesday, the official marking date of the NHL's free agency period, the Toronto Maple Leafs have $22.28 million in salary cap space.

While they have plenty of room to chase after UFAs, Leafs GM John Chayka has some internal business to take care of, because Toronto has four players on the roster who will be RFAs as of July 1.

Forwards Jacob Quillan, Nick Robertson, and Matias Maccelli are all pending RFAs, as is defenseman Emil Andrae, who was acquired this off-season.

Of those four players, who are all eligible for salary arbitration, here's a ranking on who is most likely to receive a qualifying offer and to be extended by the Maple Leafs ahead of the 2026-27 campaign.

4. Matias Maccelli, LW

Maccelli is coming off his first season with the Maple Leafs. Last off-season, he came in a trade from the Utah Mammoth in exchange for a third-round pick in the 2027 draft.

In 2025-26, the Finnish left winger scored 14 goals and 39 points in 71 appearances. That was an improvement on his previous campaign in Utah, when he put up just eight goals and 18 points in 55 games.

The 25-year-old is yet to reach the numbers he set in his second and third years in the NHL. Specifically in his third NHL season, in 2023-24 with the Arizona Coyotes, Maccelli set a career-high with 17 goals and 57 points, showing signs of a top-six forward.

Though last year was an improvement for him from the season prior, there's certainly room to improve for the playmaker.

There was a nine-game span in which Maccelli did not feature for the Maple Leafs, as he was a healthy scratch for a portion of the campaign.

Before that time in the press box, Maccelli played 22 games and had four goals and nine points. Since being reintroduced into Toronto's lineup on Dec. 20, his scoring consistency improved as he registered 10 goals and 30 points in his final 50 games of the year.

Maccelli previously earned $3.425 million against the salary cap on what was a three-year contract. A qualifying offer for him would cost $4.11 million.

3. Nick Robertson, LW

It's time for the Maple Leafs and Nick Robertson to go through another contract negotiation. Last season, he filed for salary arbitration. As a result, he earned a one-year deal at $1.825 million.

The 24-year-old will likely find himself signing another short-term deal when the time comes, considering the limited opportunity he's seen in the Leafs' lineup. Luckily, he's in another position to prove himself again with a new front office and head coach behind the bench.

Despite his limited role this past year, Robertson set career-highs in nearly all major categories. The 5-foot-9 left winger recorded 16 goals and 16 assists for 32 points in 75 appearances and averaged 12:40 of ice time, all of which are personal bests.

Even with steady improvement in terms of his production and numbers each season, it's been a challenge for Robertson to find a regular spot in the lineup. Even with left winger Bobby McMann out the door and to the Seattle Kraken, Easton Cowan and 2026 first overall pick Gavin McKenna are expected to have roles on the NHL roster next season. 

And that's without mentioning Matthew Knies, William Nylander, Dakota Joshua and Maccelli (if re-signed) as wingers on Toronto's depth chart. If Chayka goes out and acquires another winger in free agency, that's another player to add to that list, creating a tougher path for Robertson.

Nonetheless, Robertson is a player who is capable of scoring 20 goals in the NHL.

A qualifying offer for Robertson would cost $1.825 million.

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2. Jacob Quillan, C

Fresh off a Calder Cup-winning campaign with the AHL's Toronto Marlies, Quillan will be looking to jump right back into contention for the NHL lineup next year.

Quillan, 24, featured in about a quarter of the Maple Leafs' games this past regular season. He finished the year with one goal and three points in 23 contests for Toronto, with two of his points coming in the final two outings of the campaign, including his first NHL goal in Game 81.

Considering Quillan doesn't have much NHL experience - playing just 24 career games in the league - it wouldn't be very challenging, expensive or inconvenient for the Leafs to re-sign him. After all, he's filled in as a bottom-six center who can take shifts on the penalty kill and is relatively responsible behind the puck.

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Most of his time was in the minors this past year. He contributed 14 goals and 36 points in 40 regular-season games, followed by three goals and nine points in 19 post-season affairs.

The Maple Leafs signed Quillan to a two-year contract in April 2024 after he went undrafted. That contract came after his third season with Quinnipiac University, when he provided 17 goals and 46 points in 39 NCAA games.

That deal saw the 6-foot-1 center earn $875,000 against the salary cap each year. With that, it would cost the Maple Leafs $850,000 to qualify Quillan. 

1. Emil Andrae, D

Andrae seems like the most likely pending RFA to sign a contract with the Maple Leafs. He hasn't played a minute for Toronto, but the Maple Leafs acquired him from the Philadelphia Flyers, along with Joseph Woll and Simon Benoit.

In that trade, along with Andrae and a 2026 third-rounder (which was used to select goaltender Juuso Ainasto), was also goalie Samuel Ersson, who was also a pending RFA. Ersson ended up getting moved to the Ottawa Senators for a 2027 fifth-round pick.

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Nonetheless, because Andrae was practically the main piece of that return from the Flyers, Chayka must have plans to sign the Swedish defenseman to a contract this summer.

The 5-foot-9 blueliner played 64 NHL games last season for Philadelphia. In that span, he scored two goals and 13 points while averaging 15:20 of ice time. Andrae had the second-best plus-minus rating with a plus-15, only behind left winger Noah Cates' plus-26.

He also featured in four playoff games out of the Flyers' 10 post-season contests, providing one assist and averaging 11:05 of ice time per game. 

Andrae, 24, is set to hang around the bottom pair or a seventh-defenseman role with the Leafs next season, as Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Darren Raddysh, Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe all sit ahead of him on the depth chart.

Regardless, it's expected that Toronto inks Andrae eventually. He's coming off his three-year entry-level contract, which paid him $903,333 against the salary cap. It would cost the Maple Leafs $874,125 to give Andrae a qualifying offer.

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