Stock Up, Stock Down — Week 1: Bear Returns

Jump to Conclusions Monday is one of the best days of the NFL season. Where else can we express our endless optimism for Justin Fields? (Huh, he didn't start this year? Well, at least Dalton Kincaid continued to show he was at his best before he started getting tackled for real.)

I aim to present four players that have seen their stock go up and four that have seen their stock go down, but in doing so I'm trying to project forward a little bit rather than just talk about box score lines. I don't think Jayden Daniels is going to be rough in 2026 because of his Week 1. He very well may be, because that offensive line is depleted, the Commanders only used him on two designed runs, and he doesn't have many weapons around him. But I have enough respect for the Eagles defense that I want to see how things run out here over a few weeks. Similarly, Breece Hall's stock isn't up simply because he smashed around the Titans. With all due respect to Robert Saleh's defensive scheme, I need to see him do it against a better defense.

That doesn't mean we won't hit on some of the week's best performances — it's almost impossible to avoid in some cases — but we're here aiming for players that saw major gains or losses in their floor or ceiling, not necessarily players who had great weeks.

Stock Up

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears — Frankly, you could leave this Bears-Panthers game feeling great about having any Chicago Bears player. Yes, even Colston Loveland, as bagel as the performance was. When Ben Johnson said he was aiming to set the NFL scoring record, not only do I think he wasn't lying, but I think he knows this offense has to do that because his defense is that rough. These Bears games look like they're set to be fantasy football wind tunnels, and you want to cling to any single shred of them you can get.

But Swift in particular felt like he gained major value once the Bears signed him to a three-year extension on Friday. The book on Swift has always been that he hasn't been good enough to be a franchise running back — not good enough for the Lions or Eagles, and the Bears had Kyle Monangai on his tail almost instantly last year rather than letting him be an unquestioned lead back. But Swift's contract now values him like that player, and he played 43-of-75 snaps and was electric in Johnson's run attack as the Bears ran roughshod on the Panthers.

Swift was the entrance point to the RB Dead Zone, with an ADP just ahead of MarShawn Lloyd, but the underlying situation here has shifted greatly from where things were at draft time. I'm not saying he's going to be a fantasy football RB1 this year, but I'm also not sure how you can conclude that he couldn't be one from where we stand right now. If he plays 60 percent of the Bears snaps and they focus on the run like this, Swift is going to be one of the best picks of the season.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens — We all knew that Derrick Henry could have games like this. But what is actually promising about this Week 1 for Henry are two things: The health of Lamar Jackson and the relative lack of health of this passing game. Jackson generated 29 yards after contact as a rusher and, even though he wasn't featured, was involved enough in Baltimore's run game to draw eyes. I don't want to make it sound like I was counting on Jackson to fall apart this season, but I thought it was at least on the table after how he looked in 2025. 2026 Jackson looks a lot like 2024 Jackson. That's incredible news for Henry, as it sets a floor on the passing offense and draws eyes away from him.

Meanwhile, Zay Flowers was the only competent receiver the Ravens had and left Week 1's game with a hamstring injury after putting up 5/150/1 on six targets. Training camp legend ja'Kobi Lane was also hurt, lowering some upside cases for this pass offense. if Flowers is injured, we're talking about Mark Andrews and Chris Moore as the leading receivers coming into next week. I think that team might wind up with a run-first identity.

If you imagine OC Declan Doyle bringing the Bears running game and melding it on to one of the most talented running backs of his era, does that sound like someone who might be a fantasy football RB1 overall candidate? It's probably too soon to say that, but it's not like he hasn't already been a top-five back with the Ravens as recently as 2024. And it's not the first time we've had the thought "Derrick Henry is ageless." The thought that Derrick Henry is ageless is, in fact, also ageless.

Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars — There was a surge towards the reporting at the end of training camp claiming that Washington would be the Jags lead wideout that pushed Washington's ADP ahead of Brian Thomas Jr., and I think in retrospect we'll probably agree that we didn't correct for it quite hard enough. To be fair, Thomas left this game with a shoulder injury (he should be fine) and this was always the kind of game where the Browns lead outside cornerbacks were going to gravitate towards the deep threat. Jakobi Meyers was also dealing with a hand injury.

But Washington went out with the Jaguars throwing only 23 balls and still managed a borderline WR2 day with a 5/83/1 finish on six targets. He had double the targets of any other Jaguars receiver. I think there will eventually be games where Thomas is the lead wideout in this offense, but I don't know if we're going to see enough of them to keep Washington from being a real fantasy WR2. The Jaguars basically throttled down the pass offense against a Browns team that had a pretty good defense last year to not embarrass them too badly. Some of that is Deshaun Watson being abysmal, sure, but this Jaguars team is going to find some shootouts this year. The talent on defense is not good enough to keep that from happening.

All of that should make you feel pretty good about having Washington as a WR3 on your squad, if that's where you picked him in drafts just before the season.

Devaughn Vele, New Orleans Saints — FLEX gold if you happened to start him, Vele was attached to a 21-0 comeback with the Saints as they took the Lions to a failed two-point conversion in overtime. Chris Olave was the main point-getter, but Vele went for 7/69/1 on nine targets, tied for second-most on the team.

I don't think Vele is someone that we'll necessarily be starting as a locked-in WR3 just yet, though I also wouldn't rule it out. When Tyler Shough throws the ball 56 times, everyone is going to eat to some extent. But the fact that Vele outpaced the other rookie receivers in Jordyn Tyson's absence makes me think he can at least hold on to some value in the early season and maybe establish enough of a role that Tyson is brought on slowly.

Vele looked good in his high-snap volume shot with the Saints last season prior to getting hurt. It was always obvious that the targets were going to be there next to Olave and Juwan Johnson. The question was simply if anyone else would pop up and take them. Travis Etienne did catch some passes here, but I don't think that's going to be a feature of the game plan. Vele seems like he'll be on at least the WR4 radar going forward until we see when Tyson will return. That's good enough for me to recommend a FAAB stab in most leagues.

Stock Down

Kyle Pitts and Drake London, Atlanta Falcons — No, we're not dropping them after Week 1. We also know that the quarterback play can't quantifiably get worse than Cooper Rush played — he had a QBR of 2.6, took four sacks and barely managed to crack 100 yards on an offense that leaned heavily into Bijan Robinson targets. But ... it is possible that we live in a world where the Falcons can't find a reasonable passing game floor. We don't know what Michael Penix will bring or when he'll bring it. The Tua Tagovailoa situation has gone from concerning to flat-out strange, to the point where Mike Florio believes a release may be on the table. I don't know what to believe about Jack Strand other than that in Atlanta the fourth-string quarterback is actually the most popular guy on the team.

I wouldn't exactly say I had sky-high expectations for London and Pitts against the Steelers with Rush — a man who signed at the very start of training camp — under center. But I did expect more than this. And I would not blame anybody for putting them outside of the circle of trust in Week 2 against the Panthers, even if I personally will start'em where I've got'em and hope this was just a fluke.

Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns — Again: What is the passing game floor here?

Judkins is supposed to be the ground-and-pound guy to let the Browns stay around in games, and I don't necessarily hold his poor workload against him here because this game got out of hand quickly. But if Watson isn't even going to be able to pretend to be a quarterback answer, we're starting to lose some potential floor with Judkins in blowouts. Judkins had the worst PFF pass block rating on the team yesterday, something that won't necessarily help him stay on the field on passing downs. The hope was that Watson would add something with his legs, but it wasn't enough to get Judkins any extra space. 24 of Judkins' 33 yards came after contact.

Big fan of the player, I think he could be a bellcow at some point this year. But the situation is not making it easy to believe he has a chance to be more than an RB3 this year. The offensive line was always going to be weird with all the turnover, and if Watson isn't helping with his legs, it's Judkins against the world every time he gets the ball.

Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, Tennessee Titans — The Jets spent a lot of capital on veteran defensive additions to win games like this, and it worked. Cam Ward had 140 scoreless passing yards against a team that had zero interceptions and allowed 36 passing touchdowns in 2025. There is no Fire Brian Callahan button around at this time. The Titans will be better than they were in Week 1 because they have almost no choice but to be, but it could be a few hungry weeks for anyone who invested in these two as top-50 wideouts. To come out and get bounced by the Jets, of all teams, at home ... is very concerning stuff.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals come out and have a heart-warming road win over the Chargers after a full offseason of being discounted and slandered by many, myself included. Jacoby Brissett doesn't need an offseason, Trey McBride is as good as ever, Michael Wilson plays another productive game.

And there, buried under Kendrick Bourne's 8/75/0 line on eight targets is ... Marvin Harrison Jr.: one catch, 33 yards. It was a great catch, to be fair!

But we are quickly reaching the point where the disappointing common denominator here is Marvin Harrison Jr., not anyone else on the team. And to get thoroughly outplayed by Bourne, a free-agent signing in his first game with the team is very concerning to me. To barely be involved in the slot snaps again, and to drop another ball, it sure makes it feel like Harrison simply isn't going to reach his ceiling here. That doesn't mean I'm dropping him in normal-sized leagues yet, but I think you've got to treat him as a WR4 until proven otherwise. And that's probably not what you drafted him to be.