Stop Guessing: Todd Mcshay’s Big Board Reveals First-round Targets

Just this week, Todd McShay (formerly of ESPN, now with The Ringer) proposed a ranking of the top 100 players in the draft, which covers the players he has a first-, second- or third-round grade on. Unique to McShay’s ranking is that he conveniently separates the prospects into different tiers, which can be helpful when trying to predict where players will come off the board during the first three rounds of the draft.

A tiered approach can be particularly helpful as we try to figure out what the Cowboys draft strategy could, or should, look like. Let’s start with the first round, which McShay has broken into three tiers. Tier 1, which are Day 1 starters and project as perennial Pro Bowl players, is empty in this draft.

That brings us to Tier 2 prospects, players McShay calls plug-and-play starters with high-level potential and worthy of a Top 15 pick.

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TIER 2
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
1	Jeremiyah Love	RB	ND	94
2	Sonny Styles	LB	OSU	94
3	Arvell Reese	EDGE	OSU	94
4	Fernando Mendoza	QB	IND	93
5	Caleb Downs	DS	OSU	93
6	David Bailey	EDGE	TTU	93
7	Olaivavega Ioane	OG	PSU	93
8	Mansoor Delane	CB	LSU	93
9	Carnell Tate	WR	OSU	93
10	Francis Mauigoa	OT	MIA	92
11	Rueben Bain Jr.	EDGE	MIA	92
12	Makai Lemon	WR	USC	92
13	Spencer Fano	OT	UTAH	92
14	Jordyn Tyson	WR	ASU	92

What is noteworthy here for the Cowboys is that of the six defensive players on this list (the “Big 6”) five are ranked in the Top 8, and only one defender (Rueben Bain) is ranked between 9-14. The big board is not a mock draft, but it stands to reason that if teams have a similar ranking, there’s going to be an early run on defenders. If any one of the Big 6 falls to No. 12, the Cowboys need to make that player their pick.

Note on the color code: Mansoor Delane is marked in green because he’s on the list of Top 30 visitors for Dallas. Unfortunately, that list is not very long yet, because the value of such a tiered approach increases significantly when we can match it with the full list of the Top 30 visitors and understand which players the Cowboys are particularly interested in.

But back to our Tier 2 list: If the Big 6 are all gone, should the Cowboys default to the next best defenders in the draft? Here’s an overview of the players on McShay’s Tier 3 list, where you’ll find good NFL starters that are considered strong values in the bottom half of Round 1 in any given draft class:

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TIER 3
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
15	Jermod McCoy	CB	TENN	91
16	Monroe Freeling	OT	UGA	91
17	Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	IND	91
18	Kenyon Sadiq	TE	ORE	91
19	Dillon Thieneman	DS	ORE	91
20	Akheem Mesidor	EDGE	MIA	90
21	Keldric Faulk	EDGE	AUB	90
22	T.J. Parker	EDGE	CLEM	90
23	Blake Miller	OT	CLEM	90
24	Ty Simpson	QB	ALA	90

From this tier, and sticking to the next-best-defender strategy, Jermod McCoy would be a good option for the Cowboys if the Big 6 are all gone.

Of course, not everybody agrees with McShay’s ranking. Take Jermod McCoy: PFF currently has him ranked 17th overall, Dane Brugler ranked him 16th in early February, ESPNs Field Yates ranks him 15th, NFL.com’s Eric Edholm has him ranked 12th overall, and CBS Sports ranks McCoy 9th.

So, is it Big 6 + McCoy at No. 12 for the Cowboys? Probably, but that’s pending Tennessee’s pro day on March 31st, which will help determine his ceiling – if he’s healthy. But the Cowboys have thrown a wrench into the works by inviting WR Omar Cooper for a Top 30 visit. Assuming the pre-draft visits carry some weight (which they have in the past), could the Cowboys pivot to a falling offensive player?

They did that with Ceedee Lamb in 2020, when they put aside their defensive needs (which sound very familiar in 2026 again) to catch the falling offensive player:

Pass rusher, cornerback, and safety were bigger needs for a team that already has a trio of offensive stars in Prescott, Cooper and two-time NFL rushing champion Ezekiel Elliott, not to mention perennial Pro Bowlers on the offensive line.

There’s a trio of wide receivers ranked in McShay’s Top 14 along with two tackles. Could the Cowboys once again pivot from their defensive needs in favor of a falling offensive player?

Elsewhere in Tier 3, there’s an accumulation of pass rushers ranked in the early 20s, which makes Akheem Mesidor, Keldric Faulk, and T.J. Parker the likely targets for the 20th pick. But what if the Cowboys manage to get Rueben Bain with their 12th pick? They are unlikely to draft two edge rushers in the first round, so their options at #20 narrow significantly in that scenario.

Safety Dillon Thienemann is very likely getting picked by the Vikings at #18, and even if Jermod McCoy is ranked outside the top 14, it’s unlikely he’ll fall all the way to #20.

If the Cowboys stick to the next-best-defender strategy, they’ll have to make a pick from Tier 4, which McShay describes as good future NFL starters but with a second-round value.

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TIER 4
Rank	Player	POS	College	Grade
25	Caleb Lomu	OT	UTAH	89
26	Gabe Jacas	EDGE	ILL	89
27	Zion Young	EDGE	MIZ	89
28	Cashius Howell	EDGE	TAMU	89
29	Denzel Boston	WR	WASH	89
30	Emmanuel McNeil-Warren	DS	TOL	89
31	Kadyn Proctor	OT	ALA	89
32	Caleb Banks	IDL	UF	89
33	Kayden McDonald	IDL	OSU	89
34	KC Concepcion	WR	TAMU	89
35	Avieon Terrell	CB	CLEM	88
36	Peter Woods	IDL	CLEM	88
37	Colton Hood	CB	TENN	88
38	Max Iheanachor	OT	ASU	88
39	Antonio Williams	WR	CLEM	87
40	Chris Johnson	CB	SDSU	87
41	Anthony Hill Jr.	LB	TEX	87
42	Chase Bisontis	OG	TAMU	87
43	CJ Allen	LB	UGA	86
44	Malachi Lawrence	EDGE	UCF	86
45	Lee Hunter	IDL	TTU	86
46	Brandon Cisse	CB	SCAR	86
47	D’Angelo Ponds	CB	IND	85
48	Jacob Rodriguez	LB	TTU	85
49	Chris Brazzell II	WR	TENN	85

I think this is a highly interesting tier because it offers a wealth of options for the Cowboys.

It has three linebackers (Anthony Hill, CJ Allen, and Jacob Rodriguez) who would all be an immediate upgrade for the Cowboys roster, and Hill is already on the Top 30 list.

If the Cowboys do manage – against all expectations – to swing a trade for a linebacker before the draft, then this tier also offers a nice selection of corners with Avieon Terrell, Colton Hood, Chris Johnson, and Brandon Cisse, all of whom have received first-round consideration in the mock draft trackers we regularly publish on Blogging The Boys.

Not happy with those choices? This tier also offers the third-ranked safety (Emmanuel McNeil-Warren #30) and the top three defensive tackles (Caleb Banks #32, Kayden McDonald #33, Peter Woods #36).

In fact, this tier is dominated by defensive players who account for 18 of the 25 players in this tier. And given this cornucopia of defensive options, do the Cowboy stick to their spot at #20 or do they move down, knowing they’ll still get a good defender 10, 15 or 20 spots later?

Again, this is not without historical precedent. In 2013, the Cowboys went into the draft with the 18th overall pick, and were looking for offensive line help. They looked hard at offensive guards Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack, but both were taken in the top 10. And when safety Kenny Vaccaro went 15th to New Orleans, the Cowboys decided to trade down, convinced they’d still be able to get O-line help. Here’s Jerry Jones in his post-draft press conference:

“Yesterday we traded down and got Travis Frederick. We received some critique as ‘Did we get enough? Did we pass and not get players that were there by going down to get Frederick?’”

“By moving down from 18 to 31, we got Travis Frederick. We discussed that last night. I need to say this, it’s very important: We really thought Frederick would be there as low as 31. We needed, and were going to get us, a foundation for our offensive line. Certainly, there were a couple [of offensive linemen] at the top that didn’t magically fall down there, in the interior. And that would have been a dream from the fall down there, and you could have operated like that.”

An argument could be made that they were hoping to get another offensive lineman, Justin Pugh, with their 31st pick. Pugh was rated one spot above Frederick on the Cowboys’ draft board, but Pugh was picked 19th by the Giants, so the Cowboys took Frederick, the last remaining offensive lineman in the first round.

With the many options available in Tier 4, a trade down could make sense once again for the Cowboys – if they find a team willing to trade up. In 2013, the trade-down netted them the 73rd pick (WR Terrance Williams). A similar trade-down to New England’s 31st spot – if New England is interested – could net the Cowboys pick 95.

Combined with their own 92nd pick from the Osa Odighizuwa trade, the Cowboys could sit at the bottom of the third with two picks and catch whichever Tier 4, 5, or 6 players fall their way. Tier 5 players, per McShay, are future solid to good NFL starters that might see action in situational roles early in their career, while Tier 6 players project as future solid starters that need time to develop or have limited upside.

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TIER 5					TIER 6					TIER 6
Rank	Player	POS	Grade		Rank	Player	POS	Grade		Rank	Player	POS	Grade
50	Germie Bernard	WR	84		64	A.J. Haulcy	DS	79		82	Keith Abney II	CB	76
51	R Mason Thomas	EDGE	84		65	Cole Payton	QB	79		83	Keyron Crawford	EDGE	76
52	Eli Stowers	TE	84		66	Max Klare	TE	79		84	Tacario Davis	CB	75
53	Emmanuel Pregnon	OG	83		67	Mike Washington Jr.	RB	79		85	Austin Barber	OT	75
54	Zachariah Branch	WR	83		68	Elijah Sarratt	WR	79		86	Jalen Farmer	OG	75
55	Jadarian Price	RB	83		69	Dani Dennis-Sutton	EDGE	78		87	Jalon Kilgore	DS	75
56	Deion Burks	WR	82		70	Gracen Halton	IDL	78		88	Sam Hecht	OC	75
57	Jake Golday	LB	82		71	Christen Miller	IDL	78		89	Marlin Klein	TE	75
58	Keionte Scott	CB	82		72	Gennings Dunker	OT	78		90	Malik Muhammad	CB	74
59	Treydan Stukes	DS	82		73	Derrick Moore	EDGE	78		91	Ja’Kobi Lane	WR	74
60	Malachi Fields	WR	81		74	Bryce Lance	WR	77		92	Devin Moore	CB	73
61	Josiah Trotter	LB	81		75	Ted Hurst	WR	77		93	Romello Height	EDGE	73
62	Kyle Louis	LB	80		76	Chris Bell	WR	77		94	De’Zhaun Stribling	WR	73
63	Bud Clark	DS	80		77	Domonique Orange	IDL	77		95	Logan Jones	OC	73
					78	Kaleb Proctor	IDL	77		96	Chandler Rivers	CB	73
					79	Garrett Nussmeier	QB	76		97	Chris McClellan	IDL	72
					80	Davison Igbinosun	CB	76		98	Sam Roush	TE	72
					81	Keylan Rutledge	OG	76		99	Connor Lew	OC	72
										100	Carson Beck	QB	71

Even without a trade down, the Cowboys should just sit tight in the third round and grab the highest ranked player that falls to them, they’ll just do it once instead of twice.

If you don’t like McShay’s ranking, you can do the same exercise with any other draft board. None of the others are as neatly divided into tiers though, but they’ll give you a good idea of who’ll be available where as well.

As you start thinking about a big board, or as you look at other people’s boards, see if you can identify any tiers. They’ll be a good starting point as you whittle down the names to arrive at a more manageable shortlist. And once we know the names of all or most Top 30 visitors, this becomes quite a valuable tool to navigate the draft.