The Hawks Have Everything Except A Closer. Can Jalen Johnson Be The Guy?

The Atlanta Hawks have just about everything you could want in an NBA roster.

• ⁣Lockdown defenders: Dyson Daniels and Lu Dort

• Knockdown shooters: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert

• Hard-nosed bigs: Onyeka Okongwu and Jock Landale

• 3-and-D wings: Aaron Wiggins and Dorian Finney-Smith

• Promising young players: Kingston Flemings, Asa Newell and Zuby Ejiofor

• And an up-and-coming All-Star: Jalen Johnson

Hawks head coach Quin Snyder has such a deep roster that Atlanta can play basically any style it wants with interchangeable pieces. If Okongwu misses a week, Ejiofor can step in. If Daniels is out, Dort can take the toughest perimeter assignment. Wiggins can handle some of the same responsibilities as Alexander-Walker. There are going to be nights when Snyder looks down his bench and has multiple answers for whatever the Hawks need, which will be one of the strengths of the team over the regular season.

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But the Hawks are missing one critical thing: Who gets them a bucket at the end of a close game?

Last season, McCollum scored 0.82 points per isolation. Alexander-Walker scored 0.85. Johnson scored 0.78. All three ranked below the 50th percentile, according to Synergy Sports. As a team, the Hawks ranked dead last in isolation scoring.

McCollum certainly had his moments against the Knicks in the playoffs, hitting the go-ahead baskets in both of Atlanta's wins in the first-round series. But New York found an answer by putting Josh Hart on him. Over the final three games, McCollum averaged just 11.3 points on 39.5% shooting, and he committed 10 turnovers to only four assists. The Knicks adjusted, and Atlanta's most reliable scorer in the series suddenly had a much harder time creating anything.

Getting out and running wasn't much of an option either. The Hawks ranked third in fastbreak scoring during the regular season at 18.1 points per game. They scored seven fastbreak points in Game 4, four in Game 5, and eight in the Game 6 clinching blowout loss. New York forced them to play against a set defense. That's what happens in the playoffs, when opponents know your actions and take away your easy baskets. Eventually, somebody has to beat a defender one-on-one.

McCollum spent the prime of his career as Damian Lillard's second option. The Hawks can't expect him to carry a bigger burden now at age 35.

Johnson, who made his first All-Star team last season, is Atlanta's best hope of becoming that player. At 6-foot-8, he can grab a rebound and lead the break, run a pick-and-roll, or attack a mismatch off the dribble. But he still needs a more reliable jumper. Against the Knicks, he averaged 19.5 points on just 29% shooting from 3. There's another level he needs to reach as a scorer for the Hawks to become a serious playoff threat. And if it's not Johnson, then it'll have to be someone else.

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Alexander-Walker jumped from 9.4 to 20.8 points per game last season. What if there's more coming? His elite shooting already makes defenders sweat, he's a talented connective passer, and a versatile defender. Better finishing and self-creation could vault him higher. He led Team Canada in pick-and-rolls this summer, ahead of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Andrew Nembhard. So perhaps that usage is a sign of what's to come. 

Alexander-Walker's breakout was built largely on off-ball volume. He ranked in the 30th percentile in isolation scoring and the 37th percentile in pick-and-roll scoring, per Synergy. So as optimistic as one might be, these numbers would have to improve a lot for him to fuel the scoring jump needed to earn a spot. 

Could it be Flemings — not as a rookie, but some time down the line? Perhaps. Flemings is a speedy guard with a knack for shooting off the dribble. But as a Houston freshman, only 39% of his shots came at the rim, and he struggled against top competition. According to CBB Analytics, he posted a 54.3% true shooting percentage against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, which is a 12.4% lower number than he did against Quad 3 and Quad 4 teams (the steepest decline of any guard drafted in the first round). He also had some of his roughest games in March, including when his year ended in the Sweet 16 with just 11 points on 4-of-10 shooting. He's only 19 years old so he certainly has plenty of time to learn, but he's starting from a place where the more likely outcome for him is to be a highly versatile player rather than becoming the guy who's leaned on to get a bucket.

It's possible the player who fills this role isn't even on the team yet. The Hawks can dream about bringing Anthony Edwards home someday, but they can't count on him ever becoming available. And if the Hawks target anyone else, they just don't have the assets to compete with other teams. For now, they have to hope Johnson or Alexander-Walker takes another leap, or that Flemings eventually becomes an ace end-game presence.

There's enough talent in Atlanta to win a lot of games. McCollum can still get hot and swing a playoff game. But to win a Finals, Atlanta needs someone it can keep turning to after the other team adjusts. The Hawks have assembled just about everything you'd want around that player. Now they have to develop him or go get him.