Week 1 Preview: Fast Start Needed

Training camp is over, the preseason is in the rearview mirror, Kyle Van Noy is signed, and future Hall of Fame inductee Harrison Smith is returning for a 15th season. After eight long months, the Minnesota Vikings will finally play a regular-season game.

SETTING THE STAGE

The Green Bay Packers arrive at U.S. Bank Stadium in a strange situation. They’ve been the 7th seed in the NFC playoffs for three straight seasons. They’re in that strange 8- to 11-win “good, perennial playoff contender, but there’s a definite ceiling to the whole thing” zone under Matt LaFleur in the post-prime Aaron Rodgers era. I previously likened it to the 1992-97 Denny Green Vikings, and that’s a fair comparison. As I also noted, there is no Randy Moss on the horizon for the Packers.

But more immediate problems are facing the Cheeseheads. It was already known that the 3-time First-team All-Pro Micah Parsons was out for this one, but now they’ll (likely) be without their star running back, Josh Jacobs.

VIKINGS ON OFFENSE

There are a lot of unknowns here as Kyler Murray takes over as the fourth opening-week starting quarterback in Kevin O’Connell’s five seasons as head coach. It is what it is. Will Murray end up being the elusive long-term answer at quarterback? Well, the answer to that question begins.

Murray and the Vikings offense will face a Packers defense with many question marks. Aside from the enormous Parsons issue, it’s a unit that saw turnover in the offseason. EDGE Rashan Gary, LB Quay Walker, and CB Nate Hobbs are all gone, with DT Javon Hargrave, LB Zaire Franklin, and CB Benjamin St-Juste coming in as the primary reinforcements.

The Packers also have a new defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, for whom Kevin O’Connell has had some trouble as the Vikings’ head coach. After an initial impressive showing in his debut as the Vikings’ coach in 2022 against… drumroll… the Green Bay Packers, the following week in Philadelphia, against Gannon as the Eagles’ defensive coordinator, was ugly. The Vikings were held to a putrid 264 total yards and just 7 points. Kirk Cousins threw 3 interceptions, while Justin Jefferson was limited to 6 catches for 48 yards.

They faced off again at U.S. Bank Stadium in 2024, this time with Gannon as the Arizona Cardinals’ head coach. The Vikings secured a 23-22 victory, but they were quite fortunate. I’d argue they were lucky. We trailed 19-6 late in the third quarter and 22–16 with 3:20 remaining. We were outgained 406-273 in total yards. The Cardinals also committed 10 penalties.

The key for Gannon in 2026 will be generating pressure in Parsons’ absence. Despite going down in Week 15 last season, he still accounted for 12.5 of the Packers’ 36 total sacks. Their sack rate plummeted from 6.8% to 2.3% in the final three games of the season. Gannon is a big Cover 4 and Cover 3 guy who has historically been a low-to-moderate blitzer. The preference has been to get home with four by incorporating stunts and simulated pressure looks. This may have to change this season out of necessity, especially early on.

The good news? With Parsons injured, Gannon will not have nearly the talent at his disposal that the stacked 2022 Eagles unit had. And KOC will have that 2024 game on film to make advantageous adjustments this time around. The bad news? He didn’t do much to improve the Vikings’ offensive output the first time around. Even against an average Cardinals defense, it was a slog.

While I think Kyler Murray will have a strong season, it will be his first start in KOC’s system after playing only one preseason series. Expecting him to hit the ground running on all cylinders may be too much. One can be hopeful, I guess. 

VIKINGS ON DEFENSE

Brian Flores had the Vikings rolling on defense at the end of the 2025 season, highlighted by an absolutely dominant Week 17 performance against the high-flying Detroit Lions, with everything on the line. Training camp performances, along with late roster additions, do not indicate a letup. Dallas Turner appears ready to take the next step, while the Kyle Van Noy signing and Harrison Smith’s return calm the nerves a bit. Concerns remain along the defensive line, but overall, this unit looks poised to stay elite.

That doesn’t mean LaFleur and company haven’t had some success against Flores. Jordan Love has been largely feast-or-famine in his five outings, with two strong performances averaging 323 yards, 3.5 passing TDs to 1.5 INTs, and three weak ones, with a high of 229 yards passing (two under 200) and a combined 2 TDs and an INT.

It’s also a good-news/bad-news scenario for the Packers offense. The good news is they’ll benefit from the return of tight end Tucker Kraft, who was on the verge of an All-Pro season before an ACL injury. Yeah, a lot is riding on Kraft not missing a beat after major knee surgery.

The bad news is that they have to be at the top of the list for vacated target share in the NFL this season. They’ve put a lot of faith (and money) in Christian Watson taking the next steps toward the elite WR1 category, and whether Jayden Reed and Matthew Golden can replace the reliable Romeo Doubs and the departing Dontayvion Wicks remains to be seen.

I’d expect Flores to try to get home early, using simulated pressures and stunts to exploit a shaky, uncertain Packers offensive line that has many questions after allowing one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL last season. A surely raucous crowd at U.S. Bank Stadium will undoubtedly assist in this effort. This, in turn, will make it easier to take Watson and Kraft out of the equation. Jacobs’ absence should also create more opportunities to focus on coverage.

PREDICTION

As much as I’d love a repeat of the comfortable 2022 season-opening win over the hated Packers, I see this one more like the 2024 games. In both, the Vikings came out strong, with leads of 28-0 and 20-3 (and 27-10), respectively, only to escape with two 2-point wins. We were especially fortunate at Lambeau, where it seemed we’d have taken a loss if there’d been a few more minutes on the clock. 

Hopefully it won’t be that much of a nail-biter. With the Packers missing their best defensive player, Parsons (and arguably the best in the NFL), along with their most dangerous offensive weapon, Jacobs, they should struggle to keep pace if the Vikings’ offense can reach the mid-20s (which it should).

The importance of getting this win and a fast start to the season is clear. You have to beat the Packers at home when they’re this short-handed. Simple as that, folks. The next two weeks on the road at Chicago and Tampa Bay are tricky, and the middle stretch of the season (@Detroit, Buffalo, @Green Bay, @SF in Mexico) looks brutal. Entering that stretch at 5-1 or 4-2 may be necessary if we want to challenge for a playoff spot, let alone the division.

It won’t be easy, and some aspects of the offense will need time to gel, but I believe the Vikings will take an important first step on Sunday. I can see a key turnover and a short field helping the good guys win.

Minnesota Vikings: 24

Green Bay Packers: 20