What History Says About 2-1 Nba Finals Leads: Spurs, Wemby Have Hope

The 2026 NBA Finals have reached a critical juncture based on past champions.

The San Antonio Spurs struck back and took Game 3 over the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden after the Knicks won the first two games of the series in San Antonio. A pivotal Game 4 awaits in New York on Wednesday, June 10, with history suggesting the winner could have a big advantage in the pursuit of a title.

This is the 64th time in league history that the NBA Finals has featured one team winning two of the first three games, and there's been an inordinate amount of volatility in these situations in recent years. But there's still just one team ever to overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Finals.

With that in mind, USA TODAY Sports combed through the NBA record books to examine all the NBA Finals since they began in 1950 to determine any trends and patterns that have emerged when a team leads the series 2-1. Here's a look at five storylines that emerged:

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1) Home teams have an advantage, but not as much lately

Home teams are 29-32 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals when the series sits at 2-1, while road teams have won eight of the last nine Game 4s of an NBA Finals where one team won two of the first three games.

Though the team that's leading the best-of-seven series 2-1 after Game 3 has gone on to win the NBA Finals 49 of 63 times, the team trailing 2-1 after three games has won the NBA Finals three of the past four times it has occurred (2025, 2022, 2021).

2) The Knicks have been here before

The New York Knicks are more than 50 years removed from their last NBA championship, but that title in 1973 came under similar circumstances. The Knicks had a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 of the NBA Finals at Madison Square Garden and won, then captured their second NBA championship in four years in Game 5.

The Knicks also had a 2-1 series lead in 1970 when they beat the Los Angeles Lakers for the NBA title, though New York lost Game 4 on the road in that series. The Knicks trailed 2-1 in the series when they lost in the NBA Finals in 1994 and 1999.

3) Only 7 teams have pulled off what Spurs must to win NBA Finals

There are seven teams to successfully pull off what the San Antonio Spurs must do in the NBA Finals — overcome a 2-1 series deficit facing Game 4 on the road in the NBA Finals. Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors did it twice during their recent championship run (2015 and 2022). Before that, LeBron James and the Miami Heat won the 2013 NBA championship over the Spurs in that fashion.

The 1984 Boston Celtics with Larry Bird, the 1978 Washington Bullets and Bill Russell's 1957 and 1962 Celtics' teams also won championships facing the scenario the Spurs are now dealing with entering Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals.

None of those teams, however, lost the first two games of the NBA Finals at home like San Antonio this year.

4) Could Wemby emulate Bill Russell's early NBA Finals loss?

Russell faced a 2-1 series deficit in his first two NBA Finals appearances and four times overall during his remarkable run with the Boston Celtics in which he won the NBA championship 11 times in 13 years.

He had a 3-1 record in those respective Game 4s, with the lone loss coming in 1958 when the Celtics lost the NBA Finals to the St. Louis Hawks. During Russell's rookie season the year before, he and the Celtics overcame a 2-1 NBA Finals deficit by winning Game 4 on the road against the Hawks.

5) LeBron James and 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers stand apart

A team that's leading the NBA Finals by a 2-1 series advantage and and then wins Game 4 has only failed to win a championship once. In 2016, Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers became the first (and only) team to overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the NBA Finals when they defeated the Golden State Warriors for the title. The Warriors won Game 4 on the road that year.

Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls had a 2-1 series lead in five of their six NBA Finals appearances and went 3-2 in Game 4 in those situations. They, of course, never lost an NBA Finals series.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Knicks should be wary of 2-1 NBA Finals lead given recent history