What’s Behind Steve Kerr’s Decision?

The Golden State Warriors will enter the 2026-27 NBA season with the second-longest tenured coach in the NBA, unless they enter it behind a new voice and a new leader, who will seek to re-open the championship window for Steph Curry’s final years and build a post-Curry future.

After last Friday’s season-ending loss to the Phoenix Suns, Steve Kerr told reporters that he would take “a week or two” to decide on his future. There have been few reports, as Kerr seems genuinely unsure as to what his next step is, though there’s been plenty of speculation. Per the latest updates, Kerr won’t be making a decision until next week, at the earliest.

So what, exactly, is on his mind? What is he weighing as he decides whether to return or cruise into retirement (or perhaps a job in the media)?

It’s impossible to know exactly what Kerr is thinking, but we do, at least, have a fairly good idea. Let’s start with what we know.

The job is his if he wants it

Let’s start with the important facts: the Warriors are not contemplating moving on from Kerr. They are waiting to see if Kerr is moving on from them. We can speculate all we want about whether Joe Lacob and Mike Dunleavy Jr. think Kerr is the perfect coach for the team, and my guess is that if Curry were retiring, there might not be an offer on the table for Kerr.

But Curry is not retiring. He two-time MVP has another year left on his contract and, after the season ended, reaffirmed his desire to play “multiple” more seasons, and indicated that he is open to contract extension talks in the coming months.

Lacob may pay the bills, and Dunleavy may make the decisions, but Curry runs the show. His stated preference, both publicly and privately, is for Kerr to coach the team. And as long as that is true, there’s a job offer on the table for Kerr.

That doesn’t mean it’s without stipulations (more on that in a moment). But there are no meetings being held to determine whether or not the Warriors should bring back Kerr. This is his decision, not the team’s.

But…

The Warriors want some changes

The postmortem reports from the season indicate that the front office — and the analytics team — want Kerr to make some changes. There’s been a frustration with the team’s turnover rate, which was the fourth-highest mark in the NBA this year (and while there are plenty of good teams that turn the ball over regularly, the best usually don’t — the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, and San Antonio Spurs all ranked in the top five lowest turnover rates this season). There’s a desire to be less reliant on the three (the Warriors finished first in the NBA in three-point attempt rate, despite Curry missing 39 games and the team finishing just 19th in three-point percentage). And, presumably, there’s a hope that the Dubs can find a better way to flourish in the minutes when Curry sits, which has plagued them ever since Kevin Durant left town.

Furthermore…

Golden State wants a longer-term commitment

It seems evident that the stress of Kerr’s contract status weighed on many people throughout the year, and it’s not the first time that that’s happened. And it’s equally clear that the team wants to build a foundation that is fairly stable.

All of that makes for a funny situation. The Warriors surely will have a contract offer on the table for Kerr … but only if it’s for multiple years. I would guess that if Kerr re-signs, it will be for a deal that matches the length of whatever Curry’s timeline is. Perhaps a three-year deal for the former, and a two-year extension for the latter.

And then, of course, let’s not forget…

Kerr is still having fun

If you had told me a few months ago that Kerr would walk away from the team, I would tell you it’s because the job is no longer fun for him. It’s a taxing industry, and even the sunniest people can get worn down by it. Remember how unhappy and stressed out Klay Thompson appeared by the time he left town? And that’s Klay Freaking Thompson!

The Warriors have been absent a large amount of joy in recent years, and it would be understandable if it took its toll on Kerr.

But it seems like it hasn’t. Kerr appeared energized late in the season by players like Gui Santos and Pat Spencer. He appeared optimistic about the future of the team with Jimmy Butler III in the fold. And most importantly, when talking with the media after the season-ending defeat, Kerr stated emphatically that he still loves coaching.

Kerr is fairly transparent. If his holdup was that he wasn’t sure he still enjoyed this, he would have stated as much. But he didn’t. Instead, he said simply, “These jobs all have an expiration date.” And that gives us the insight we need to determine the biggest thing at play.

Does he think he’s right for the job?

Kerr does not always follow the book. He’s been a part of tension in the locker room, and, more notably, in the front office. Recent reports suggest that some at the top of the organization have grown frustrated with his continued expression of left-leaning political opinions (a bold stance for a team that has had no issue employing players with domestic violence histories).

But he’s still a company man at heart. And, like his star player, he is as selfless as he is ruthlessly competitive.

It feels abundantly clear that Kerr is not going to pull the Curry card. He could, to be clear. But he won’t. He’s not going to return simply because he can.

In short, if Kerr is to coach the Warriors next year, it will be because the Warriors want him to coach the team, not just because he can.

That means making the aforementioned concessions. He’ll need to be willing to modernize his offensive system, and possibly upgrade his coaching staff. He’ll have to commit to at least two, and probably three years. He’ll have to show a plan for how to develop young players, including the team’s upcoming lottery pick.

The Warriors would likely begrudgingly sign Kerr to a deal without those concessions, but Kerr is big enough to show himself out rather than back ownership into a corner.

So what it really comes down to is this: can the two sides find a happy compromise? Kerr will meet with Lacob and Dunleavy and, in all likelihood, he’ll mostly be sussing out whether those two actually want him back, or if they’re just willing to bring him back to appease Curry. They likely do want him back, as long as some concessions are made, and Kerr will have to determine whether he still wants to coach with those concessions.

It’s a little reminiscent of Bruce Bochy leaving the San Francisco Giants. The organization had just made a dramatic front office shift, and while Bochy could have used the legacy card to stay around longer, he understood that the team was ready to move in a new direction, and he spared everyone the awkwardness that could have ensued.

No one knows what Kerr will choose, least of all himself. But that, it seems, is what it will come down to. As much as he still enjoys this, as much fun as he’s having, and as much as he wants to be around Curry and Draymond Green for a few more seasons, he has to check the expiration date.

We’ll soon learn what he finds.