Who Has The Edge Between The Patriots And Dolphins?

The New England Patriots are back in their division in Week 8, trying to bounce back from last Thursday’s loss in Chicago. To do that, they will have to beat the Miami Dolphins on the road this coming Sunday.

The two teams’ records and statistics suggest that they very much should be capable of doing so; the oddsmakers share that belief as well. And how about us? We too feel good about New England’s chances because our head-to-head comparison shows that the Patriots are the superior team overall.

Passing game

Patriots pass offense vs. Dolphins pass defense: This could get ugly. Yes, the Patriots have had some tendencies to shoot themselves in the foot, but overall their pass offense has performed at a high level lately: since Week 4, which is when quarterback Drake Maye turned the corner on his early-season issues, New England’s 0.423 dropback EPA is ranked first in the league by a significant margin. For comparison, over that same span, the Dolphins pass defense is ranked only 23rd in the league (0.174) — not terrible, and in fact the best among all AFC East pass defenses in those four weeks, but still not enough to suggest they can seriously challenge Maye and company. Despite their injury woes, this seems like a matchup the Patriots can only lose if their turnover problems reemerge. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots pass defense vs. Dolphins pass offense: New England’s pass defense has had its fair share of problems lately, and last week’s loss to the Bears might have been the low point: big plays, missed tackles, no takeaways — it was the unholy trinity of underwhelming defensive football. Despite that loss and the Dolphins having shown some recent strides moving the ball through the air, however, we still feel good about New England’s pass defense in this matchup. The Dolphins lack Chicago’s talent across the board, and that is talking both on and off the field. With 10 days to prepare against an inexperienced unit, the Patriots should be able to dictate this matchup both in the trenches and the secondary. | Edge: Patriots

Running game

Patriots rushing offense vs. Dolphins run defense: Rhamondre Stevenson is currently a one-man show on the ground for the Patriots, who is getting little support from the blocking provided by the offensive line and other support cast. While potentially getting Ben Brown back could help, any improvements are likely to be marginal — and that includes TreVeyon Henderson being another week removed from his ankle sprain. Against the Dolphins, this could create some problem: Miami’s run defense is arguably the best unit on the team, even though it looked better early in the season. Still, against New England’s inconsistent ground game it will get an opportunity to bounce back. | Edge: Dolphins

Patriots run defense vs. Dolphins rushing offense: The Patriots run defense has not been as bad some of its moments this season might suggest; it has not allowed a 100-yard rusher so far and only two of seven opponents have managed to crack that number as a whole. That said, the unit will be facing a big challenge this week in the form of a Dolphins run game that continues to be productive even with De’Von Achane out for the year. Led by second-year back Ollie Gordon II, who has managed to gain 100-plus yards in two of three contests since Achane went down, Miami’s is among the most potent rushing attacks in football right now. If New England continues to have its inconsistencies, the Dolphins and Gordon in particular are more than capable of exploiting them. | Edge: Dolphins

Special teams

Coming off an underwhelming game in Chicago, the Patriots’ special teams operation will have an opportunity to get back on track on Sunday. The Dolphins, after all, have not been particularly impressive in the game’s third phase. They have had some solid outings — their 13.0-yard-per return punt runback group is ranked fifth in the NFL — but there have been issues in kickoff coverage (33.6 yards/return; 32nd) and place kicking; the latter prompted the team to make a change over its Week 6 bye. New England has not been without its blemishes either, but should at least be able to win in most if not all of the core-four areas. | Edge: Patriots

Coaching

Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are as experienced a coaching tandem as you will find in the NFL, while Zak Kuhr has been very good calling the defense in his first year as coordinator. With them leading the way, the Patriots are in a competitive position each in and every week. The Dolphins’ staff has yet to prove itself capable of the same. While the team has started to trend in a positive direction, the coaching has not been able to overcome a lack of talent on a consistent basis. | Edge: Patriots

Verdict

Currently only in eighth position in the AFC playoff picture, the Patriots are in need of a victory if they want to remain in close contact with the top of the conference. To be honest, anything but them earning that victory on Sunday would be a major blow to their status as a contender. New England, after all, is the better team top to bottom and even on the road should not let the Dolphins steal the win.