Who Is The Most Dangerous Potential Pistons First-round Matchup?

The Detroit Pistons won 60 games for the third time in team history. That was good enough to lock up the top seed in the East.

That means that play-in tournament results will shape the beginning of the Pistons’ playoff journey. Detroit has not reached these heights in a while, and they did it in the best Eastern Conference play-in bracket to date.

With the season Detroit put up, “fear” is not in their vocabulary. The Pistons would happily take on any of these four teams and aim to destroy them with relentless pressure and a togetherness that has dominated the NBA.

While it is true Detroit will sign up to play anybody and be favored against them in round one, some teams play a more favorable style that Detroit can take advantage of.

Who is the most dangerous potential Pistons first-round matchup?

8 seed Orlando Magic, 45-37

The Orlando Magic were supposed to be one of the top teams in the East after their offseason. The Desmond Bane trade was massive, and Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were supposed to take leaps. Yet here they are in the play-in for the second straight year. Injuries, tour date shooting, and a backsliding defense put the Magic in this position.

Orlando is supposed to be a gritty team like Detroit, but their defense fell off. The Magic had the 3rd best defense last year. They had solid rim protection, positional size, and a togetherness that held teams in check.

Now the Magic are the 13th-ranked defense. They have lost that elite identity overall, but Orlando is heading into the postseason playing good ball defensively. They have the seventh-best defense over the last two weeks, removing garbage time. Orlando has the second best defensive pedigree among these four teams.

They have not lived up to expectations, but the Magic could put a dent in the questionable Pistons halfcourt offense. When healthy and available, Jalen Suggs is the type of defender that would get under Cade and stay on his hip.

But the Magic offense? That is still a struggle fest.

The addition of Bane has not paid top-tier dividends yet. He played all 82 and shot it efficiently, but the offensive woes in Orlando remain. Banchero has not been able to put it together for long stretches. He has been up and down. His shot selection is still puzzling.

Sometimes I watch and wonder whether he settles so much because he cannot get past defenders consistently. Then he will have a night where the shots are falling, and it’s like, yeah, that is why he keeps shooting (Banchero taking 2s works in Detroit’s favor, hot or not).

To his credit, Banchero has been a playoff riser, and he has shot the ball at an inferno level in the high-stakes game. Teams will still prefer him shooting jumpers over attacking the paint.

Overall, Banchero is much more dangerous when putting his shoulder down and attacking defenders. He is one of the best foul drawers in the league. That chink in his armor is one thing Detroit should be concerned about in this potential matchup.

Franz Wagner is arguably the Magic’s most impactful player, and he is back in the lineup. Wagner has a more free-flowing game than Banchero. Wagner is a more plug-and-play player. He does not need the ball to be impactful; he is a connective passer and a decisive cutter. Wagner has had low moments in the playoffs, but his usual steady play is something to account for. Wagner gets to the line too, so Detroit must be disciplined.

The Pistons destroy teams in the paint on both ends, they get out in transition after forcing turnovers, smother teams defensively, and they foul. They foul a lot.

With Detroit leading the league with 22 personal fouls per game, Banchero and Wagner will look to initiate contact and sit Pistons defenders down. Banchero and Wagner are in the 96th and 95th percentile on shot attempts they were fouled on.

Banchero can be 4-16 from the field but best believe he will shoot at least 10 free throws to bring up his point total. He is a handful when he is not forcing jumpers.

Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed, Javonte Green, and probably even Cade Cunningham would see some Banchero minutes, and they would need to stay focused on cutting off driving lanes so Banchero can settle for tough pull-up 2s.

Banchero is very willing to settle, but if you do not cut him off, he will get you in foul trouble. If Detroit stays disciplined, it could be the first team to make Banchero look like his regular-season self in the playoffs.

Tristan Da Silva is one of Orlando’s better shooters who will be on top of the shooters’ scouting report, along with Bane. Orlando has talent in their big 3, but they have not been able to put it together all year. It is tough to imagine they flip the script against a Pistons squad that has been on a string since November. The Pistons’ halfcourt concerns should not show its head as much against an up-and-down Magic defense.

Orlando sells out to protect the 3-point line rather than holding down the paint. The points in the paint leaders in Detroit are licking their chops seeing that type of philosophy.

On the danger scale, Orlando gets a 4/10. You cannot be arrogant, thinking this time will bend the knee because Detroit won 60 games. Banchero has shown up in the playoffs, and Wagner and Bane are great players. That said, this special defense and deep unit in Motown would be too much for Orlando.

7 seed Philadelphia 76ers, 45-37

Philly was the most dangerous team when I initially started this process. Joel Embiid has not broken through in the playoffs, but he is so much to deal with. He is not a player you willingly sign up to play, even with his checkered playoff history. Healthy Embiid with a 28-PPG scorer and Paul George by his side makes Philly a top-heavy unit. Embiid is not healthy again, though.

Embiid just had surgery for appendicitis. There is no timetable for his return. It sucks that a talented big like him cannot stay healthy for an extended period of time. It is difficult to be confident in the 76ers when their best player is a question mark.

For pockets of this season, Tyrese Maxey emerged as the guy. His play (28 PPG – #5) was so strong that it would make one think maybe Philly will be okay without Embiid. Time will tell if that is true, but that would not be the case against the Pistons.

Detroit smothers anyone, but small guards get it worse. Without the Embiid safety valve, Maxey would constantly see a crowd of junkyard defenders.

There is talent around Maxey, though it is a far cry from being next to Embiid. Paul George is playing his best ball in years after returning from a 25-game suspension. George looks rejuvenated. His 39-point effort on April 1 looked like the old PG. Detroit has matchups for him as well. Ron Holland, Green, and others can all make George struggle. Those same defenders will make it hard on VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes.

Grimes and Edgecombe are Philly’s microwave guys. They go through ebbs and flows but can torch you randomly. Grimes is a solid finisher, while Edgecombe has made five or more 3s seven times this year. The wings in Detroit will not allow it to be easy for those two.

Philly does not turn the ball over often. They rank sixth in turnover percentage. That is against everybody, though. Everybody is not Detroit. Philly was not as safe with the rock on the April 4 loss to Detroit.

That was just one game, but the Pistons do that to everybody. Philly does not have the manpower to handle that pressure, even with a healthy Embiid. He has battled with turnovers his whole playoff career.

Nick Nurse is a championship-winning coach. Some question if he is still operating at that level. He does not maximize movement shooters (see Jared McCain). But Nurse was seen as an in-game adjustment wizard in Toronto. That was a while ago.

The culture and buy-in JB Bickerstaff has established in Detroit makes it hard to easily give Nurse the coaching advantage due to playoff success from the late 2010s. Bickerstaff has outcoached Nurse this season.

With Embiid’s health in the air, who is going to contain Duren? Duren would be a lot for Embiid himself. Adem Bona has put together a good year, but he will be in for a rude awakening if he is the one guarding Duren in round one. Andre Drummond would not fare much better.

The 76ers would have the top-end talent advantage if Embiid were 100 percent. He is not. Philly is not better offensively or defensively. They do not have a deeper bench. One could argue that Detroit has the better coach.

There is not much working in Philly’s favor in a potential match-up with the Pistons. Philly gets to the line a lot. With how handsy and active Detroit is, foul trouble is a potential problem against most teams. It pays that the Pistons are deep.

Philly and Orlando face off in the seven/eight play-in game. The winner clinches the seventh seed and takes on the Boston Celtics in round one. Interestingly, the more dangerous teams are the lower seeds in the play-in tournament. Detroit would be favored against Miami or Charlotte, but they bring some clear advantages.

10 seed Miami Heat, 43-39

Erik Spoelstra has turned water into wine a few times. The Miami Heat overachieved in 2020 and 2023. Granted, Jimmy Butler turned into a top-five player, and random role players popped off during these runs. One could argue that it is elite coaching that empowered those players to have career moments. Spo has proven he can make in-game and series adjustments.

Miami’s advantages over Detroit come down to coaching and experience. JB Bickerstaff should win Coach of the Year (Joe Mazulla is great, but this is JB’s), but he is not a proven playoff coach like Spo. Cade and company have not won a playoff series yet, either, while Bam Adebayo was the No. 2 option on those overachieving Heat squads. Experience and coaching will always be relevant, but Detroit has the talent on its side. On both sides of the ball.

The Heat does not have an elite playmaker who sets the table for himself and others, but that has not stopped them from having the 11th-ranked half-court offense. Tyler Herro and Norman Powell are snipers. Davion Mitchell and Kel’el Ware shot the rock with confidence all year.

The Heat’s no-pick-and-roll offense resulted in more success than last year’s offense. Jamie Jaquez Jr. has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this new offense. He thrives driving to the paint and has more space now. Ball movement can open up lanes when teams cannot fly around with precision (Detroit can).

Though Miami has had some success relative to where they were last year, it is difficult to visualize a team having playoff success running virtually zero PnRs when the game slows down in the playoffs.

The Heat also play with the fastest pace, which contributes to their 120 points per game. But again, things slow down in the playoffs. We will see if Miami tinkers with its playstyle. First, they must win two straight on the road to even make the playoffs.

Miami banks on ball movement and attacking closeouts. The Pistons have the defensive personnel to stick with the Heat. That could limit the Heat’s offense. If the Heat cannot get a team in scramble mode, it is tough for them to attack in space.

On the other side, the Heat have a battle tested defense that would probably have the best scheme for Detroit. We have seen teams push the “put two on Cade and live with the results” button. New York did some of that in the playoffs last year. The Heat have the personnel to do this as well. Andrew Wiggins is rangy, Pelle Larsson is in the NBA to defend and bring energy, Dru Smith and Davion Mitchell are constant pests, and Adebayo covers the whole thing. This team has the best shot of “exposing” the Pistons halfcourt concerns.

The half court offense concerns have been there all year for Detroit. As of late, the team has improved from there and the shooting is making a difference. Detroit has a top 10 halfcourt offense since April 1. Some of those games came without Cade. This is a team with insane depth.

If the Pistons shooters continue to make shots, doubling Cade becomes less effective because he make any pass in the book.

Putting two on Cade also opens up Duren who would have an opportunity to outplay one of the best defensive bigs in the league should Detroit face Miami.

Cade and this version of Duren are potentially the best players in a series with the Heat. Adebayo is one of the best defenders in the game. He is versatile and should at least make second-team All Defense this season.

On offense, Adebayo has the shot diet of a wing. His shots from the rim have steadily dropped over the years. That is killing Adebayo’s efficiency. Cade is a no-brainer, but Duren has clearly been better than Adebayo this season. Duren outplaying Adebayo in the playoffs would be massive.

Miami has the coaching advantage, but that has not always been enough to make up for the talent gap (see 2021 round one vs Milwaukee).

Miami’s danger scale rating would be a 5/10. They do not have the offensive firepower to shoot through Detroit. Defensively, Miami will be prepared, but Detroit loves those ugly, drawn-out defensive battles. The Pistons live for that. Spo would have the Heat ready to play, but the Pistons are deep and well-coached. They would be ready too.

9 seed Charlotte Hornets, 44-38

If the season started in January, these Hornets would have home court in the playoffs. The Hornets are 33-16 since the new year. For the full season, they are fifth in offense and seventh in point differential.

All in all, the Hornets are an elite offensive unit that is a lot better than their record suggests. Their turnovers could be their death sentence against a pick-6 Pistons team, but the Hornets are the goods.

LaMelo Ball leads the top-flight offense. Throughout Ball’s career, He has been singled out due to questionable pass and shot selection. Some thought he was too fancy, but there was always magic in his madness. It is on full display now that he is healthy and playing alongside teammates who attract attention.

Kon Knueppel Bball-Index’s 3PT shot quality is a D. The lower the grade, the less open the shot is. Knueppel is a rookie every team in the league glues to because he led the league in 3-point makes, shooting a staggering 42.5 percent from deep. He was first in 3s, and Ball was second. Ball spreading it around, and the Hornets’ accuracy from deep makes them a legit threat for anybody.

The Hornets have the second-highest 3-point rate with garbage time removed, only trailing the Golden State Warriors. 45 percent of Charlotte’s shots come from 3. Unlike GSW, the Hornets are one of the most accurate teams from distance.

Knueppel, Ball, Brandon Miller, Grant Williams, and Coby White all garner attention from 3 and can all attack closeouts. If Detroit did not have multiple defenders who could switch screens and chase without a hiccup, the Hornets would shoot right through them.

The paint battle is a non-negotiable for Detroit in a potential Charlotte matchup. The Pistons are third in offensive rebound percentage, while the Hornets do not give up many offensive rebounds. It would be a battle between the melee participants from earlier this season.

Moussa Diabaté is arguably the best pound-for-pound offensive rebounder in the league. He loves snagging boards and kicking it out for Hornets trey balls.

Duren and Isaiah Stewart have to take that edge away from Diabaté. The Hornets’ offense is too explosive to give them multiple opportunities to succeed. Miles Bridges is in the front court with Diabaté. He is not a premier offensive rebounder, but he is a big body you have to box out.

Grant Williams is one of the Hornets’ backup bigs, and he can play. We have seen him drill seven 3s in a Game 7 (2022 Celtics vs Bucks). That is another gritty shooter Detroit will not leave open.

You cannot leave many Hornets players open, but they are not a lockdown team with brilliant individual defenders. Charles Lee has had his guys on a string, but we will see how his guys handle being hunted in the playoffs. Can Ball hold up with constant planned attacks? What about Knueppel? He has been good, but the playoffs and regular season could not be more different.  

The Cade and Duren PNR could have a ton of success against this Hornets team. Those beeline drives off Duren screens and the lob to Duren on the roll could be Detroit’s bread and butter.

Charlotte’s defense has been solid, but they still give up more shots at the rim than average. Detroit lives in the paint and could beat Charlotte up inside.

3 is worth more than 2, and this series could paint that picture very clearly, but Detroit has a special defense that could make the Hornets play their style of play. Neither team is crazy experienced, but this Detroit group did go through trials and tribulations last year together.

The Hornets have a superior offense, while Detroit has more than enough scrappers to chase and hound Hornets creators/shooters. This would be a competitive series and could go the ugly way if Charlotte went berserk from deep. The Hornets have some Jameis Winston in them. They can throw for 5,000 yards but also lead the league in picks.

Ball is solid with the rock, as his turnover percentage is in the 63rd percentile among point guards. Charlotte as a whole turns it over like you get points for it. Every starter would be liable to give it to the Pistons besides Ball and Bridges.

Being turnover-prone against these Pistons is like a nail in the coffin because they force turnovers with the best of them. Ausar led the league in steals, Holland and Green were some of the best bench thieves, and Reed’s hands are super sticky. Even Kevin Huerter is in on the action so far in Detroit. The inexperienced Hornets already turn it over a lot, and Detroit would look to intensify that.

The Hornets have a superior offense, but I would predict that the Pistons’ defense could contain the Hornets. Detroit’s paint presence on both sides of the ball could wear down the thin Hornets. Detroit has the best player in the series by a good margin, so that always helps. Cade will be on a mission to earn those playoff stripes.

Charlotte is the most dangerous of the four play-in teams. Detroit sent a message to the Hornets during the last week of the regular season. The Hornets have been a great team in the second half of the year, but the Pistons are still a step above. This potential first-round series would be a hard-fought 6-game series if I were a betting man. The Pistons’ defense, paint presence, and relentless pressure could crack the volatile Hornets.

Stats via Cleaning The Glass, Bball-Index, PivotFade, NBA.com, and Basketball-Reference