Why The Pistons Bet $200 Million On Jalen Duren Despite His Playoff Struggles

Maybe a few years from now, or even just a few months from now, we'll look back at this summer's Jalen Duren saga and wonder why there was ever a debate. The Pistons just locked up a 22-year-old center coming off an All-NBA season for five years and $200 million, well below the $287 million max he was eligible to receive.

Duren already gives Cade Cunningham a huge target around the basket. He can soar for a lob or catch a pass in traffic and power through contact. He runs the floor and pounds the offensive glass, generating points without needing plays called for him. And last season, he started expanding his game by lowering his turnover rate while taking on more offensive responsibility as a ball handler, passer and screener. With Cade off the floor, he had more opportunities to show off his developing face-up post game, which helped fuel a doubling of his free-throw attempts per game. He averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds while helping anchor the league's second-ranked defense. And he rightfully earned a spot on an All-NBA team.

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But then came the playoffs. Duren got outplayed by Wendell Carter Jr. in the opening round, then completely pantsed by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in Round 2. His scoring fell to 10.2 points per game, and his shooting percentage plummeted from 65% to 51.4%. Duren looked like a star the entire season but then started to struggle at even role-player basics.

"I'm man enough to acknowledge my flaws and that I'm not perfect. I'm also man enough to get my ass in the gym and work on those things and get better," Duren said at his press conference on Sunday. "I'm not trying to run from anything. I'm not running from what happened because I know I will make things better in the future."

Duren's playoff struggles are the primary reason the Pistons balked at giving him the full max. But the other reason is the simple fact that over his first three seasons he was a hot and cold player. He would go stretches in which he looked dominant and then other stretches where he played aloof or lazy defense and didn't impose himself enough on offense. Some talent evaluators around the league contribute those inconsistencies to focus and mentality. Others say it's about his conditioning — the Pistons even attempted to put weight clauses into his contract at one point during negotiations. The odds are it's some mixture of everything. Maturity could have been a natural factor too. Duren was just a teen and now he's grown into a man who takes his craft seriously and we're now witnessing the beginnings of his prime. 

We'll see in time. For Duren to be worth this contract extension, he'll need to prove his substantial improvements last season weren't a fluke and carry it over to the playoffs. But for him to exceed all expectations, he'll need to keep ascending. And hearing Duren at his presser, the latter is part of the plan.

"I would say just creating my own shot," Duren said when asked about what he's trying to show on the court this season. "I try to put myself in a position to be versatile and be able to be used in different ways, so you never have to put me in a box. I try to be a tool that my coaches and my teammates can use to do anything."

Duren started doing more work off the dribble last season and took more pull-up jumpers than he did in every other season of his career combined. And he actually looked quite good at doing it. Duren made 15 of his 31 dribble jumpers (48.4%), which is obviously a tiny sample but he actually looked quite comfortable doing it. He also shot 54.5% out of post ups and 46% out of isolations, both very efficient marks, albeit also on a small volume.

Maybe those flashes become dependable weapons for Duren this season. Which is precisely why it's easy to understand why the Pistons weren't willing to sign-and-trade him for the likes of Domantas Sabonis, who is 11 years older and lacks Duren's upside, or Anthony Davis, who might be better in a vacuum but can't be trusted to stay healthy.

That said, Duren is still all very much about potential. As nice as it is that he can take some midrange face-up jumpers or bully smaller players when Cunningham isn't on the floor to run the offense, what the Pistons really need is for him to start taking spot up 3s. We might be years away from that happening, if ever.

This skill matters because of Duren's fit with Ausar Thompson. Part of the reason why Cunningham and Duren had no room to breath in the paint during the playoffs is because Thompson is such a non-shooter. Same goes for why attacking lanes were hard to come by for Thompson. Even though it worked amazingly during the regular season, it was undeniably a clunky fit during the playoffs.

With Thompson on the floor and Duren off, the Pistons outscored opponents by 11.2 points per 100 possessions, per DataBallr. With Duren and Thompson? The Pistons had a -0.9 net rating. With Duren and without Thompson. Detroit was -1.7. The Pistons just weren't very good when Duren was on the floor in the playoffs. In part because of his individual struggles. In part because of how he impacted the team by failing to offer any spacing. Things just flowed better with Paul Reed out there and with Thompson's cutting and motion.

Having two complete non-shooters in Duren and Thompson on top of a streaky shooter in Cunningham and Tobias Harris just wasn't effective for Detroit. That's why the front office went out and added John Collins, Isaiah Joe and Taurean Prince, plus drafted Ebuka Okorie. All of them offer reliable or elite shooting.

The truth is that the Pistons overachieved last season. Winning 60 games is no joke, even if it did end with disappointment in the playoffs. Cunningham is still only 25. Thompson is 24. Ron Holland is 21. This group is still very young and some of their best players aren't even in their primes yet.

Duren has already helped this team win 60 games, and his best basketball could still be ahead of him. But Trajan Langdon's job is to judge how much of Duren's upside can be realized alongside the players Detroit is building around. Settling on a contract number was only one part of that decision. If Duren ends up regressing or doesn't improve in the way the Pistons need, he is still signed at a very tradable number. The Pistons would have outs.

The best outcome is that Duren or Thompson develop a reliable 3-pointer, Okorie or Holland turn into a contributor and Cunningham keeps blossoming into stardom. There's plenty of reason to give this group time. But windows shut fast and the landscape of the league can change overnight. If another postseason exposes many of the same problems, Langdon will have to decide how much longer he's willing to stay patient.

"I want to be a Detroit Piston for life," Duren said Sunday. Making that happen will take more than becoming a better individual player. Duren has to become a better fit.