Why The Seahawks Signing Terrion Arnold For One Year Was Never About 2026

Through the first four weeks of the season the Seattle Seahawks have battled a number of injuries in the secondary, and many fans had hoped that the recent hearing in the ongoing legal case of Terrion Arnold might shed some light on when Arnold might be able to contribute.

Obviously, no such light was shed, and with the next court date for Arnold scheduled for December 15, it seems likely that no update is coming soon. This has some fans inquiring as to why the Seahawks even bothered to sign Arnold to a one-year contract, because at the present the likelihood of any on-field contributions during the 2026 season seem minimal.

Specifically, the December 15 court date comes just ahead of Week 15, so even if a trial date is set at that hearing, it seems almost impossible for any conclusion to the matter to come before the end of the season, meaning Arnold will remain on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, will continue to get paid and his current contract will expire without ever having set foot on the field for Seattle.

With that being the case, some have started to ask what the point is for Seattle to keep Arnold on the roster and continue to pay him $59,722 each week to not practice and not play, when there seems very little possibility for him to contribute in 2026.

The answer to that question requires a deep dive into the collective bargaining agreement to understand that Seattle signing Arnold to a one-year contract was likely never about 2026, and was more so about 2027 and beyond.

That, of course, seems paradoxical because the one year contract Arnold signed only covers 2026, so he’s not under contract for 2027, and therefore to understand the machination behind why, it’s necessary to turn to some light reading in the form of the collective bargaining agreement.

To jump right to the point, it is Article 8, Section 1(a) that is relevant to Arnold’s situation, and that portion of the CBA reads: (Author’s Note: Bolding added for emphasis of the relevant portion of the legalese)

Section 1. Accrued Seasons Calculation:
(a) For the purposes of calculating Accrued Seasons under this Agreement, a player shall receive one Accrued Season for each season during which he was on, or should have been on, full pay status for a total of six or more regular season games (which shall include any games encompassed in any injury settlement, injury grievance settlement orinjury grievance award), but which, irrespective of the player’s pay status, shall not include games for which the player was on: (i) the Exempt Commissioner Permission List, (ii) the Reserve PUP List as a result of a nonfootball injury, or (iii) a Club’s Practice Squad.

The reason Section 1(a)(i) is bolded is, obviously, because of the simple fact that Arnold is on the Exempt List, which means he is not earning credit towards an accrued season. That means that assuming he stays on the Exempt List through at least the December 15 court date, it will be impossible for him to earn an accrued season in 2026, which in turn means that upon the expiration of his contract at the end of the league year in March, he will have the exact same number of accrued seasons as he has now, which is two.

The fact that Arnold has two accrued seasons is laid out in the above screengrab from OverTheCap.com, and it’s relevant for a very important reason. That reason is that players whose contracts have expired and who have earned only two accrued seasons are exclusive rights free agents. Exclusive rights free agents, of course, have next to zero bargaining power when it comes to negotiating because their options are to play for the ERFA contract tender the team extends or to sit at home on the couch.

Thus, while the Seahawks and Arnold only agreed to a one-year contract, assuming he does not see any game action this year, the team will have the ability to bring him back again in 2027 on a league minimum contract for $1.12M.

Of course, at that point it comes down to where things stand with the legal case. If he is found guilty and given a long prison sentence, the Seahawks are out the $1.075M they paid him this season and can move on. If, however, the legal matter is resolved in his favor when the charges get dropped or he is found not guilty, then Seattle will have paid a 24-year old former first round pick $2.195M for a season of on field performance, which is a value that seems to fall right in John Schneider’s wheelhouse.

From there is where things get interesting because as noted on social media during training camp, a one-year deal for a player with two accrued seasons isn’t really a one-year deal.

Basically, assuming Arnold doesn’t play for the Seahawks in 2026 and things somehow work out in his favor during the offseason, his only option for 2027 will be to sign for whatever ERFA tender Seattle extends. Then in 2028 he’d be a restricted free agent. Restricted free agents, of course, also have limited ability to move around in free agency and very rarely sign offer sheets with other teams, making it very likely Arnold could be retained for 2028 on an original round tender for little more than $4M.

Putting all of those pieces together, it would work out to two seasons of a former first round talent for a total price tag of $6M-$7M, which could potentially prove to be a huge value.

Of course, it’s all predicated on Arnold being able to play because he’s not on the Exempt List or in prison, so it’s all speculative until a resolution is reached on the legal matter. However, for those who may have worried about the fact that it appears his contract may expire before he’s able to do anything on the field for the Seahawks, at this point the expiration of his contract in March will be almost irrelevant because with only two accrued seasons the only way he will be able to hit unrestricted free agency upon the expiration of his contract is if the Seahawks opt not to extend an ERFA tender.

Summing it all up, Arnold might not currently be under contract past 2026, but because of the CBA he’s under team control for the foreseeable future.