Why Yoda Thinks Morez Johnson Is The Best Michigan Prospect In The Draft

Since posting the YODA Big Board, the number one question I’ve gotten is about the somewhat unorthodox ranking of University of Michigan big guys — Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr.

Below are there ranks according to Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA), my stat-based draft analysis tool, and the Rookie Scale Consensus Mock Draft:

Why the disconnect?

To answer that question, let’s back up and look at how YODA works. As previously written, YODA is calculated using box score stats, objective measures of physical tools from the draft combine, as objective as I could find (or develop) measures of level of competition, expected NBA position, and age. All that information roils around in the spreadsheet and spits out a single score for each prospect.

Deciding on a future position is the least objective part of the process — it definitely involves some art. For example, a coach might consider a player a forward in his program even if the player doesn’t have the shooting, ball handling or playmaking necessary to play that position in the NBA. If a guy can’t make threes — or doesn’t even take them, he’s going to have to play center in the NBA, even if he’s skinny as a rake or 6-6.

Flip side of the coin, a 6-6, 250 pound collegiate “center” probably won’t succeed in the middle at the NBA unless he has extreme physical tools (long arms, outlandish leaping or agility) or has previously unrevealed skills like the ability to knock down threes consistently.

Anyway, In terms of raw statistical production, Lendeborg comes out on top. By a little. If we say Lendeborg’s stats rate a 10, Johnson’s are worth a bit over 9, and Mara’s right about 9. All of them put up impressive numbers consistent with players who successfully transition to the NBA.

Johnson and Mara rebounded a bit better. Lendeborg shot well (with three-point range) and did more playmaking (though Mara’s assists were excellent for a center), and all three showed strength as defensive playmakers — Lendeborg and Johnson with steals and blocks; Mara with 4.4 blocks per 40 minutes. All things being equal, Lendeborg’s production score was slightly more impressive than the other two.

But all things are not equal. I mean, level of competition is exactly equal for these three, but trying to determine who’s going to have the best NBA career involves a few more steps.

Age matters. When it comes to the NBA Draft, younger is better. Player peak and career trajectory research indicates that players typically make their biggest leaps in their early 20s, peak around 26-27 and then more or less maintain into their early 30s. At which point, most players get worse or get injured — or both.

In arguing against age restrictions to enter the NBA Draft, former Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban once said he wanted the option to pick high school players. He said he’d rather have players develop in his organization with professional coaches than on a college campus.

In terms of age, Johnson has the advantage (he’s 20), followed by Mara (21), and Lendeborg (23). Lendeborg is on the old side for a top NBA prospect. That’s not to say he won’t succeed (or even have a long career) — plenty of players have started their NBA careers as old or older and gone on to great things. Some have started late and had long careers.

But YODA (and eyeball scouts) has to consider the norm. And the norm is that 23-year-olds don’t make Big Jumps in production the way a 20-year-old would.

That 23-year-old can and will get better. But, on average, he has less room to get better because he’s already had more time to develop — physically, skills, experience, etc. And it comes into play when assessing statistical production. Did he post the great numbers because he’s a great player or because he’s 2-4 years older than most of his competitors?

Lendeborg was slightly more productive overall than his younger teammates. That age difference closes the gap. Basically, YODA is less impressed by Lendeborg’s production than it would be if a 20-year-old put up the exact same numbers against the exact same competition.

In predicting who will make the best NBA player, physical tools matter as well. They’re not everything, but they do make a difference.

Mara is massive, measuring 7-3 in socks with a 7-6 wingspan at the combine. Johnson measured 6-9, but with a 7.3.5 wingspan — just 2.5 inches shorter than Mara’s. Lendeborg was shortest (6-8.75), though he also had a wingspan above 7-3.

The way this ends up in YODA is that Mara’s and Lendeborg’s scores get bumps for size (Lendeborg helped a bit by my estimation that he’ll play more forward in the NBA than center), while Johnson gets neither bump nor ding. He’s basically right in the normal range for an NBA big.

Agility and leaping ability are important attributes, and at the combine Johnson established a clear advantage. He scored well enough to get bumps in both categories. Mara got dings in both — he was slow and ground-bound. Lendeborg was in the normal range for a forward on agility but got dinged for subpar vertical measures.

So, the way things look to YODA, the three Michigan big guys have comparable overall statistical production against equally challenging competition. Johnson gets the higher scorer because he’s younger and has better physical tools. Lendeborg is next because of his positional versatility. Mara brings up the rear (and rates as a late first or early second in most draft classes) because while he’s huge and was productive in college, he was slow and jumped poorly as compared to other center prospects.

Predicting who will be the better NBA player is not strictly about who was the best college player. Those other factors have to be considered. And in the case of the Michigan bigs, the YODA system has somewhat different predictions than others.