Wizards Drop Measuring Stick Game Against Hawks

Call it a learning experience. An education. School.

The Wizards entered last night’s game against the Atlanta Hawks having played the NBA’s easiest schedule so far. Their opponents had an average scoring differential of -9.83 per game. The Hawks — a middle-of-the-pack team missing their best player — were a step up.

The Wizards weren’t bad in this measuring stick kind of game, but they did get outplayed by a bit. Not every possession, but they got beat to the punch regularly throughout the contest — outshot, out-rebounded, out-competed.

Which is okay for an eighth game of the season after a three-year tank. The Wizards are trying to win this season, and against teams of similar talent level, they’ll need to up their level of compete. Games like this one could help them do that — if they seize the opportunity to learn what true NBA competition requires.

The chief area in need of some attention is ending possessions when they get the other team to miss a shot. They entered the game ranked 26th in defensive rebounding percentage and gave up 19 offensive rebounds to a tiny team with two guys 6-9 or taller, one of whom (Asa Newell) hyperextended a toe and missed the second half.

The Wizards get a second crack at the Hawks Friday night in their second NBA Cup game. If Washington wants to contend for something other than the bottom of the play-in this season, they’ll need to figure out a way to clean up the defensive boards — at least to some degree. It’d be great if they could force some opponent turnovers too (they’re 27th in defensive turnover rate). But first things first — defense in the NBA is mostly about making the other team miss and then getting the rebound. That’s where the focus should be.

From the Notebook

• Bilal Coulibaly doesn’t look to be an offensive threat, which ultimately undermines his defensive value because he’s a self-check. Chase Hughes and the Monumental broadcast team tried to turn it into a positive (the segment about how trying to win slots young players into their proper roles and now Coulibaly doesn’t have to force anything), but…it’s basically nonsense. Coulibaly doesn’t have to be an alpha scorer, but he does need to be able to take an open three, attack a closeout, or drive competently a few times a game.
• An example — in the first quarter, Trae Young passed to Coulibaly — defended by the much smaller and less athletic CJ McCollum — in the dunker spot. Coulibaly gave zero thought to attacking. He just passed it back out to Young. The possession stalled, Young passed it back to Coulibaly at the three-point line, and McCollum stripped him. The lack of aggression converted a clear offensive advantage into a turnover instead of a good shot.
• Later in the first quarter, Coulibaly provided a counter-example — he drove right, got a paint touch, collapsed the defense, and kicked it out to Alex Sarr up top. Sarr missed the wide open three, but the point here is the excellent shot created by Coulibaly attacking. Reminder: last season, opposing defenders had trouble staying in front of Coulibaly when he decided to drive, even when they gave him space and dared him to shoot.
• The Monumental broadcast never ceases to amuse. At the end of the first half, Chris Miller raved about the Wizards closing on a 9-0 run. It was indeed nice. Worth mention: they still trailed by seven.
• Kyshawn George turned in a pretty good game — 25 points on 10-14 shooting along with four rebounds and seven assists. That’s the good stuff. He also committed four turnovers and four fouls. I want to believe in him, but he’s gotta cut out some of the negatives if he’s going to help drive winning.
• Anthony Davis scored 26 points on 12-19 shooting, had 10 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 blocks. Of note: zero turnovers, zero fouls.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median last season was 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.