Data, Not Doom: Gary Keller Makes The Case For Housing Optimism

While current housing market conditions may appear to be weakening thanks to large winter storms and economic uncertainty, Gary Keller still sees plenty of reasons why Keller Williams agents should be optimistic. 

“I think that for the first six months of this year, it’s going to feel like all of last year. And then I think it’ll change,” Gary Keller, the co-founder and chairman of Keller Williams, told thousands of Keller Williams agents gathered in Atlanta Monday morning. “We think you’re going to have a better year by the end of the year. So, just keep at it.”

According to Keller it is incredibly important for agents to understand a wide variety of economic markers in order to best serve homebuyers and sellers.

“If we don’t understand the economy, if we don’t understand the numbers, we’re missing a piece of our ability to consult and give people perspective,” Keller said. “I believe if every consumer actually understood what we understand, the consumer confidence index wouldn’t be as low as it is.”

This is why Keller said he and his firm begin their Family Reunion conference each year with Keller’s “State of the Housing Market” presentation. In 2026, Keller and his team are anticipating 4.3 million home sales, up from the 4.1 million annual rate recorded for the last three years. Looking at historic trends, Keller noted that it is typically after three consecutive years of slow home sales that things tend to pick up, giving him confidence that things will pick up this year.

In addition to more home sales, Keller and his economists expect home price appreciation to continue, but at a slower pace than it did over the COVID-19 pandemic. However, even with a slower pace of appreciation, Keller said home prices nationwide will remain roughly 7.9% above the 4% average annual home price appreciation trend line. 

These numbers, according to Keller, will culminate in the industry as a whole doing a projected $2.4 trillion in sales volume in 2026, the third best year on record. However, inventory is expected to remain constrained in 2026, leading Keller to project an average of 5.9 transaction sides per agent in 2026, well below the historic average of 9.5 sides per agent. Still he and his team estimate agents to record an average of $3.01 million in volume in 2026, again the third best year on record. 

“This means that each transaction is more important than ever,” Jason Abrams, the head of industry and learning for Keller Williams, said. 

With many agents anticipating having to work with on the fence consumers this year, Keller reiterated his mantra that “it is always a good time to buy the right piece of real estate.” According to Keller the economic data support this. 

“Don’t whine” says Keller, the market is good

Perhaps one of the best pieces of news for consumers in 2026 is the lower mortgage rates, with Keller and his team projecting an average of 5.9% after two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Despite being above pandemic era rates, these projected mortgage rates are still below the historic average of 7.72%.

“If you’ve gotten in the business in the last 12 to 13 years, you don’t even know what normal is. You’ve never experienced that,” Keller said, “If you look at the first 10 years of my career, where interest rates were at 18%, days on market were 10 months and inventory was at 11 months of supply, I still hit all my goals. The agents who were really hitting it hard were doing phenomenal. So don’t whine!”

Additionally, Keller and his team noted that 21.2% of existing homeowners with mortgages currently have rates at 6% or higher.

“This represents what could be the ‘Great Unlock,’” Abrams said. “You have all these folks that wouldn’t move because the rates were so low or they became accidental landlords, and as this number continues to grow, people aren’t necessarily tied to the mortgage, which means they’re not tied to the house, which could unlock the market.”

More inventory could of course help improve affordability, which Keller and his team say is already moving in the right direction. Data shows that in 2025, on average, 32% of a homeowner’s income went towards the principal and interest on their mortgage, down from 34% in 2023 and 49% in 1981.

“Looking back at my career and 1981, when I see 32%, I think that’s awesome, but that is why perspective is so important,” Keller said. “If you go back to 2012, it is almost a decade and a half where consumers got used to underpaying the historic average for affordability (27%), so when it goes back to the norm they think it is expensive. If you aren’t there to explain it to them, they will have a misguided understanding of what’s really going on.”

Keller also noted his projected unemployment rate of 4.2% in 2026 and projected inflation rate of 2% in 2026 as other reasons why it is a good time for consumers to transact real estate. 

Hitting the headlines

In addition to talking about the economy and the housing market, Keller also addresses some of the real estate industry’s largest headlines over the past 12 months. 

When it comes to the news of the Compass–Anywhere merger, Keller said he is in wait-and-see mode. 

“Compass has this brand that they have built and now they have to put that name on a lot of other brands,” he said. “I think that’s going to be interesting and we will see how that works out for them.”

As for the housing industry’s other headline-grabbing merger in 2025: Rocket’s acquisition of Redfin, Keller has already made up his mind. 

“It is kind of a nothing burger,” Keller said. “They are not trying to increase the sales volume of Redfin. So, whatever Redfin was, is what Redfin is.”

Finally, Keller also weighed in on the industry’s ongoing private listing debate, stating that his stance is that the “consumer is always right.” However, Keller did issue a warning to agents about disclosures and how agents are talking to clients about private listing networks. 

“I’ve looked at other competitors’ disclosures around this, and to be candid with you, they’re thin. They’re not actually a side-by-side comparison and understanding of the pros and cons. So, my concern is on consumers getting the whole truth. If we’re not using the proper disclosures when we’re talking to a seller about whether to go private or straight public, just remember if you’re not fully disclosing, you’ll be the next person sued because it’ll be the next big class action in this industry.”