Homebuilder Confidence Nudges Up But Remains Below Par

Homebuilding business executives maintain a guarded outlook on the homebuilding market, amid tepid demand, shrinking profit margins and weak consumer sentiment. The ongoing conflict with Iran could further complicate the outlook for builders. 

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)’s builder confidence gauge remained subpar in March with a reading of 38. The gauge has been relatively flat since October. The good news is that the index has run notably higher the past few months than the average reading of 32 between June and September of last year. 

The HMI survey reveals that 37% of builders lowered their prices in March, while 64% offered sales incentives, little changed from the prior month. The average price reduction remained steady at 6%, and March marked the 12th consecutive month with more than 60% of builders using incentives. 

“Affordability for buyers and builders remains a top concern,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens in a statement. “Many buyers remain on the fence waiting for lower interest rates and due to economic uncertainty. Builders are facing elevated land, labor and construction costs and nearly two-thirds continue to offer sales incentives in a bid to firm up the market.”

Where is demand headed?

During the International Builders’ Show in February, many industry insiders struck a note of cautious optimism and anecdotally reported a slight improvement in traffic and demand from mid-December to February that, in some cases, was beyond what may be expected from typical seasonal shifts. 

While this won’t necessarily translate to a material increase in demand for 2026 as a whole, these reports coincide with what some public builders reported during earnings calls earlier this year. There’s growing hope that, even if the homebuilding market doesn’t rebound right away, it might have already bottomed out. 

Hovnanian Enterprises, for example, reported during its Q1 2026 earnings call that its sales pace in January and the first few weeks of February improved compared to a year ago. Toll Brothers also reported a “modest” increase in traffic and deposits from the same period a year ago. 

The ongoing war in Iran, however, adds a new layer of uncertainty, as the conflict threatens to introduce further supply chain disruptions and erode consumer confidence amid the spring selling season. 

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices to neary $100 per barrel, up from roughly $65 per barrel before the conflict began. 

The Trump administration is working on a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during a press conference on Monday that Britain is collaborating with allies on a plan to reopen the vital shipping corridor. However, there isn’t a clear timeline for a resolution. 

The average 30-year mortgage rate has also ticked up above 6.0% since the beginning of the conflict, although rates have steadily declined since last summer. 

“While the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.05% in February, the lowest since August 2022, downpayment hurdles and uncertainty from the conflict with Iran and the price of oil will be headwinds going forward,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement. 

Single-family housing starts continue to decline

According to U.S. Census Bureau data released last week, single-family housing starts in January fell 2.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 935,000, dropping 6.5% year-over-year. This comes after a 7.3% drop in single-family housing starts in 2025.

However, strong multifamily construction performance pushed overall housing starts up 7.2% month-over-month in January. Starts for buildings with 5 units or more increased 29.1% to an annual rate of 524,000 units. 

Permits for single-family homes fell 11.6% year-over-year and 0.9% from last December, while multifamily building permits fell 13.4% month-over-month. According to Dietz, single-family housing starts are expected to stay relatively flat over the course of 2026, before a forecasted increase of 6% in 2027.