Mortgage Rates Steady Near 6.15% As Oil And Jobs Data Pose Risks

After spiking last week, mortgage rates remained relatively stable this week. But the question for housing market professionals is whether the brisk spring homebuying season that was anticipated at the start of 2026 will actually materialize due to rising headwinds.

Mortgage News Daily reported Monday that 30-year fixed rates averaged 6.14%, their highest level in a month. MND said mortgage rates were being pushed higher due to rising oil prices, although oil and bond prices “reversed course” and kept rates roughly in line with Friday’s levels. MND data is based on best-execution pricing from lender rate sheets.

At HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center — which tracks locked loan rates across all borrower credit profiles — rates for 30-year conforming loans averaged 6.15% on Tuesday. That was down 4 basis points from one week ago. Rates for 30-year loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) were up 2 bps to 5.97%, while rates for 30-year jumbo loans were unchanged at 6.01%.

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami laid out two potential paths for rates based on their relationship with Treasury yields. The most recent data showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.14% — a figure that could rise depending on how markets digest the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

“As long as this conflict continues, the impact on the economy and inflation numbers will be persistent,” Mohtashami wrote this week. “At some point, the bond market will be telling us the economy is getting hit hard, but as of right now, it’s not doing that, nor does it believe this conflict will last very long.”

Jobs market ‘slows to a crawl’

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policymakers are set to meet next week, although interest rates traders are nearly unanimous that no changes are in store. In January, the Fed held benchmark rates steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, snapping a streak of three consecutive rate cuts.

February data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed continued softening in the labor market as nonfarm payroll jobs fell by 92,000 last month. And revisions for December and January came in lower by a total of 69,000 jobs.

“The jobs report is, in many ways, a housing report in disguise. Employment trends ultimately determine consumers’ ability and willingness to buy or sell homes,” said Jason Waugh, president of Coldwell Banker Affiliates.

But Waugh went on to say that interest rate volatility is less about the labor report and more about the spike in oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. He echoed Mohtashami by concluding that the near-term direction of rates will be influenced by duration of the war. The longer it lasts, the more likely rates will remain higher and serve as a headwind for home buyers and sellers.

“For mortgage and real estate professionals, this is a moment for steady, localized guidance: stay grounded in what’s happening with employers in your community, help clients define their budget comfort zone and take a proactive approach with rate-lock strategies and timing. Preparation and clarity will position clients to act confidently,” Waugh said.

Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said that “job growth slowed to a crawl” throughout 2025. Even sectors like health care that posted positive growth saw conditions weaken in February. He pointed to a slightly higher unemployment rate of 4.4% and slightly higher wage growth of 3.8% as data points to watch.

“Although this month’s job numbers were weaker than expected, we do not expect the FOMC to cut rates any time soon given the heightened inflation risk,” Fratantoni said. “MBA is sticking to its forecast that mortgage rates will remain in a range of 6% to 6.5% over the forecast horizon.”

Darkening skies for home sales?

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales for February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. That was a 1.7% increase from January but a 1.4% decrease from February 2025.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, said that sales through the first two months of 2026 are lagging behind last year’s pace. Consumers have yet to respond meaningfully to the lowest mortgage rates in more than three years.

“Even though there is pent-up demand in the market, there appears to be little urgency on the part of either buyers or sellers,” Sturtevant said. “While sales ticked up seasonally between January and February, economic uncertainty, and potentially winter weather kept more buyers from entering the market last month. A lack of inventory is also a constraint.”

Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy said that his company’s 2026 forecast remains sunny in comparison to 2025. Zillow is calling for a “modest increase” of 4.2 million existing home sales and price growth of 7% — up considerably from 3.8% appreciation last year.

“Mortgage rates moved lower at the start of the year, and incomes continued to increase faster than housing costs,” Divounguy said. “Although affordability remains stretched, the improvement in housing affordability over the past year is a boon for potential buyers and sellers.”