Uwm Raises Revenue Guidance Ahead Of Two Harbors Vote

United Holding Corp., the parent of United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), raised the bar on 2026 revenue expectations, issuing guidance just days ahead of a shareholder vote from Two Harbors Investment Corp. on UWM’s proposed $1.3 billion all-stock acquisition.

“Even without the Two Harbors transaction, we now expect our total revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to be between $800 million and $900 million, and for fiscal year 2026 to be between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion,” Mat Ishbia, UWM’s chairman, president and CEO, said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

In late February, the company anticipated total revenue in Q1 2026 of $650 million to $850 million. The consensus among analysts is $698 million in Q1 revenue and $3.2 billion for full-year 2026.

Ishbia also pointed to revenue growth from newer offerings, saying the company is “ahead of pace to achieve an annualized nine figure run rate in revenue” from products and services. These include title alternative services (TRAC+) and loan coordinator services to assist brokers with processing tasks (PA+).

On the expenses side, Ishbia argued that UWM’s investment in artificial intelligence is improving productivity and allowing the lender to scale without an increase in staffing. He said the company can handle two to three times its current volume of $49.6 billion in Q4 2025 production.

“Management commentary on AI suggests that company expenses will not increase much as increased headcount will not be needed to handle growing volume,” Keefe, Bruyette and Woods (KBW) analysts Bose George and Frankie Labetti wrote in a note.

“This suggests upside to our estimates. We’re at $0.04 for 1Q and $0.43 for 2026 (consensus is $0.06 for 1Q and $0.44 for 2026).”

Ishbia also provided an update on UWM’s voice AI assistant, MIA, which he said is expected to handle more than 12 million inbound and outbound calls this year. He added that the tool has helped surface refinance opportunities, as the company points to a 12% share in the refi market along with its leading role in purchase lending.

Two Harbors shareholders are scheduled to vote on the deal on March 16. UWM shares have fallen since the announcement, closing at $5.12 on Dec. 12 and trading around $4.14 as of Tuesday morning.

If completed, UWM says the transaction would nearly double its servicing book and create the eighth-largest U.S. mortgage servicer. Two Harbors is a real estate investment trust focused on mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) and operates RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing, a major servicer of conventional loans.

BTIG analyst Eric Hagen wrote that his firm remains “relatively confident” that Two Harbors shareholders will approve the merger, although recent volatility has reduced the odds compared to when the proposal was announced.

“Even though UWMC’s stock is confronting volatility right now, we don’t think it detracts from the longer-term vision and motivation from Two’s perspective, which is to merge with a scaled originator in order to more effectively compete on recapture to more optimally manage its prepayment risk,” Hagen wrote.

“We think the company is hamstrung with too much leverage to effectively grow and raise capital as a stand-alone, and moving forward with the deal is the best way for shareholders to capture both near- and longer-term value.”

For UWM, Hagen added that if gain-on-sale margins are stable around their current level of 120 basis points, it pencils to roughly $200 billion in originations in 2026.