Prediction Markets: Gambling By Another Name

I grew up hearing the phrase “All money ain’t good money.” That simple statement contains a warning that we should never sacrifice our integrity to improve our economic standing. Frankly, it’s a message our culture could stand to hear as we get swamped with social media ads for apps that promise to help us get rich quickly by guessing what the future holds.

Prediction markets have gone from being a marginal concern to a major problem. A White House teleprompter operator was placed on leave in July and is under investigation for making more than $100,000 from predicting what President Trump would say in his speeches. In April, a U.S. special operations soldier was arrested and charged with using classified information as a participant in the operation that removed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. He made more than $400,000 placing bets on the raid using his insider information.

These situations aren’t just about abusing inside knowledge. They point to something deeply concerning in our culture: Every piece of information has monetary value, and people are trying to cash in on it.

What makes it worse is that the casino’s dopamine rush has come to our pockets via apps like Kalshi and Polymarket. They use the language of prediction markets to push their products, but there’s little practical difference between the services they offer and those marketed by DraftKings or FanDuel. The only real difference is the topic of interest. These modern prediction-market apps are just gambling by another name.

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are open markets where people buy or sell contracts, or exchanges, based on the outcome of future events. The prices are based on collective probability, or what traders collectively think will happen. They’re peer-to-peer bets in which participants enter into “yes/no” contracts on an event.

For example, will Christopher Nolan win an Oscar for The Odyssey? The contract will pay $1 if the answer is yes, and $0 if the answer is no. If the contract is trading at $0.75, the market is predicting a 75 percent chance of that outcome. Any new information that may affect the outcome can change the probability or the price of the exchange. Anyone with access to the app can bet on anything from politics to sports to cultural events.

Gambling and prediction markets are more similar than different. The similarities are that they both entail wagering on uncertain outcomes. Additionally, participants either win or lose money based on outcomes.

The major differences lie in the mechanisms by which wagers are made and who determines the probabilities and odds. In sports gambling, the odds are set by the house to reduce the risk and increase the probability of the house winning. The house’s goal is to make a profit, so, in essence, it’s the opponent. The goal for bettors is to beat the house.

Prediction markets are a crowdsourced forecasting model in which prices reflect probability estimates, and participants make trades based on their estimates of outcomes, so the competition is with fellow traders.

Prediction markets are a crowdsourced forecasting model. The competition is with fellow traders.

Another major difference is the institutions that regulate these practices. Sports gambling and the larger industry are regulated on a state-by-state basis through state gaming commissions and boards. Prediction markets are currently federally regulated through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, though New Jersey is fighting to gain that power.

What’s Wrong with Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are especially concerning because they circumvent laws governing sports gambling. When the U .S. Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), regulatory authority over sports gambling fell to the states. Where sports gambling is illegal, prediction markets become a means to bypass state laws.

One can place “trades” on performances that are technically considered prop bets, or on the outcomes of the Super Bowl, the NCAA basketball tournament, or any other sporting event. It functions as a loophole for sports betting and, in effect, is simply another gambling platform.

Prediction markets also enable insider trading, or the manipulation of the market for financial gain based on information that isn’t publicly available. In the cases of the teleprompter operator and the special operations soldier, they had inside information that greatly influenced how they traded and placed their wagers, allowing them to profit substantially. Traders who have access to inside information or who can directly shape outcomes essentially become the house, rigging the game in their favor.

However, the most concerning problem is the potential commodification of human life and tragedy. Because prediction markets can apply to a wide range of events, people can place wagers on military operations, casualty counts, natural disasters, pandemics, and even the deaths of public figures. This is disturbing because prediction markets turn human life and suffering into objects of speculation.

In 2025, for example, people were buying and selling contracts on how fast the Los Angeles wildfires would grow and how much damage they would do. Public tragedies become a way to make a quick buck. They also create perverse incentives to potentially make problems worse so that a prediction contract is fulfilled.

Should Christians Participate in Prediction Markets?

Gambling’s harmful effects are well documented, which is why many Christians oppose sports betting. A similar case can be made against prediction markets.

Public tragedies become a way to make a quick buck. They also create perverse incentives to potentially make problems worse so that a prediction contract is fulfilled.

When we consider the harmful social effects of gambling and the fact that the prediction market industry relies on covetousness to fuel its business model, it’s hard to reconcile prediction markets with the fruit of the Spirit. Though gambling has had a mixed reception in the Christian tradition, we should ask whether these endeavors produce love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, and self-control (Gal. 5:22–23).

Christians are called to depend on God’s provision and steward with wisdom and contentment the resources he gives us. Prediction markets tempt us to wager God-given resources on speculation about the future, trying to gain quick money rather than investing wisely. As James reminds us, we “do not know what tomorrow will bring” (James 4:14). Instead of trying to wager money on our predictions, we should be working to cultivate virtue.

Though gambling in its various forms is often marketed as innocent entertainment, we should be wary of the ways it draws us into the love of money, which is the root of all kinds of evil (1 Tim. 6:10). We may be tempted to treat prediction markets as a form of harmless fun, but it’s helpful to remember that “all money ain’t good money.”