Early Week 9 Nfl Betting, Odds: 3 Wagers That I Like Right Now

As we enter Week 9, it's a good time to remind ourselves that this is only the midway point of the NFL regular season.

Subjectively, it feels like we are deep into the NFL calendar, and my opinions on a lot of these teams are fully formed. That is not true in reality. Some teams will completely surprise us in the second half of the season, and others we feel we can trust will fall off.

Last season, the Indianapolis Colts were 7-1, had the best offense in the league and ended the season with a losing record. The Texans, who started out 0-3 last year, finished on a nine-game winning streak and were considered a very dangerous team in the playoffs.

My candidates for a very strong second half of the season include the 3-5 Dallas Cowboys and 3-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My candidates for regression include the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings and the 4-2-1 New York Giants. If you are looking for a midseason future, start there with their win totals and odds to make or miss the playoffs.

Here are three early bets I like in Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 51.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The first reason to target this game is the looming NFL trade deadline. The Colts have announced a fire sale after firing their general manager and already trading guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks and DT DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers. Next up are likely WR Josh Downs (requested a trade), RB Jonathan Taylor (targeted by multiple teams) and DT Grover Stewart. If just one of these pieces were to be moved, the spread should move onto or through the key number of 7.

On the field, the Cowboys average the seventh-most points in the NFL (27.4 points per game) and should easily be able to move the ball against a porous Indianapolis defense that allows the third-most points (27.8 PPG). The passing game is the main point of vulnerability for the Colts defense, and Dak Prescott will exploit that with high volume to his star WR duo in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Inversely, Dallas' defense has struggled to stop opposing teams, but the Colts' offense is anemic. Daniel Jones has the second-most interceptions (nine), and the Colts have a league worst -11 net turnover differential due to six lost fumbles. The Cowboys defense doesn't have to consistently make plays, it needs to make one or two possession-changing plays to completely alter the game.

Bet: Dallas Cowboys -6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5, 42.5) at Baltimore Ravens

The main story out of Baltimore this week is a potentially season-ending injury for QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson returned from a high-ankle sprain on Sunday, but was limited to literally one snap where his hand hit an opposing defender's helmet following through on a throw, and his thumb was notably dislocated and deformed. Jackson now heads to surgery, is placed on IR and it is being reported to be season ending. Backup QB Tyler "Snoop" Huntley is also dealing with turf toe and is unlikely to play as well on a short week Thursday Night Football game, leaving Joe Fagnano to likely be this week's starter.

My thoughts on betting this game are twofold. First, it is a prime candidate to put the Jaguars in a six-point teaser and bring the -8.5 down to a -2.5 favorite and pair with another leg that moves through both 3 and 7. Other candidates to pair the Jaguars with include the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers who are all +2.5 in market (to be brought up to +8.5). My favorite of the bunch would be the Browns.

The second is to attack the derivative markets in props and team totals for edges. The best chance for the Ravens to win means limiting the amount of possessions and not getting into a track meet with a high-powered offense. That likely means Derrick Henry going over on his 17.5 rush attempts is a strong prop angle, or the under on the Jaguars team total.

Because of the quarterback situation, I suspect Henry takes a few direct snap rushing attempts in a wildcat formation, and thus the rushing attempts are the best place to go. Jaguars WR Parker Washington to go under 4.5 receptions was also a candidate for me.

Bet: Derrick Henry over 17.5 rush attempts (-130)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6, 47)

The two main storylines from these teams' respective Week 8 games were zero completions for Baker Mayfield, and a staunch defensive performance from newcomer Jeffery Simmons and the Bears defense. Praising one team's defense and talking down upon the opposing offense would lead most bettors to look towards the under. I'm not trying to be contrarian, but I see things differently here.

The Buccaneers were playing in a massive rain storm where the quarterbacks could not grip the ball — that negates pretty much all context from that game. What I am most looking towards is the health improvement of Mayfield's throwing thumb and WR Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield injured his throwing thumb in Week 3 and missed three games after that in what was reported as a three-to-seven week injury.

Mayfield came back at the earliest possible time relative to his injury. His ability to grip and rip the football should only be improving, considering his grip is exactly what kept him out for that period of time. Egbuka is still unknown, but getting a young WR1 can only boost the offense. He cleared concussion protocol but is still dealing with a foot injury.

On the other side of the ball, we are all at a loss for words regarding this Bears offense. On Monday Night against Seattle, they boasted advanced metrics of 51% success rate and a +0.2 EPA per play. For reference, that is the best performance from any team all year going against the Seattle Seahawks defense. While Tampa Bay is strong defensively, it seems nothing can stop the Bears from moving the ball downfield.

Bet: Over 47