One Stat That Shows The Bears’ Defense Actually Has Been Better So Far In 2026

Don’t look now, y’all: the Chicago Bears’ defense just might be back.

Ok, give me a break. I had to try.

However, after a Week 1 in which they allowed more than 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, the Bears have allowed fewer than 10 points in each of their last two contests. That has to count for a little something, right? Even if it was against a backup Minnesota Vikings quarterback (Carson Wentz) and a mercurial Philadelphia Eagles offense still searching for its footing.

One advanced stat suggests this isn’t entirely fool’s gold, albeit in a three-game sample.

Through the first three weeks of the season, Dennis Allen’s defense ranks ninth overall (!!) in EPA/play allowed at -0.052, according to rbsdm.com. In particular, the Bears have been very stingy against the pass, allowing the fourth-lowest dropback success rate (41.3%) and tied for the fifth-lowest dropback EPA. Stopping the run has been a bit more of an adventure (19th in dropback SR, 25th in rush EPA/play allowed). But in a quarterback-driven league, you might take some light punishment in giving up some plays on the ground rather than in the air. And again, it’s not as if their miscues in run defense have hurt them much. Hopefully it stays that way.

Here’s why that stat matters at least a little.

Last year at this time, the Bears were among the league’s worst defensive units through three games, sitting 26th (0.089) in EPA/play allowed, putting up appalling numbers against both the pass and run. Naturally, one of those losses came from that absolute dumpster fire against the Detroit Lions. Then again, though, it’s not like Chicago wasn’t giving it in Week 1 this year against Bryce Young, too.

So what gives?

Maybe it’s just the Bears being in Year 2 of Allen’s system and better understanding what he wants, or perhaps it’s gathering personnel that better fit Allen’s vision for defense, especially up front.

Maybe it’s both.

Whatever it is, the defense has been stepping up to do its part, as the offense tries to stay afloat with Caleb Williams (hamstring) likely to miss at least half the month of October. Right now, Allen’s unit is showcasing what it means to be greater than the sum of your parts. Though we spent much of the offseason BEGGING for the Bears to make a move up front in the draft or free agency, they stuck to their plan. Now, they have two young defenders—Dillon Thieneman and Malik Muhammad—playing well in their early snaps as rookies, ready to contribute when the moment calls for it.

The Bears aren’t an elite defensive team, and a three-game sample size generally isn’t enough to make it one.

But for now, they’re not nearly as bad as we all feared, and that’s excellent news.